571
FXUS65 KSLC 140848
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
248 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1025 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026...


- A cold front will move through the northwestern half of the area
  through Monday morning before stalling, bringing much cooler
  temperatures and drier conditions behind it.

- Monsoon moisture will linger over southeast Utah to start the
  week, bringing continued potential for showers and thunderstorms
  capable of producing heavy rain that could lead to isolated
  flash flooding.

- Temperatures rebound to near seasonal normals across the area by
  midweek with some unsettled conditions continuing, at least for
  eastern Utah.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1025 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026...
A Pacific Northwest storm system is making its way
into Montana this evening, with its associated cold front near a
KENV-KEMM line. The frontal passage has been mostly dry so far,
with just a few very isolated cells developing in the vicinity of
the boundary. The front will continue slowly southeast overnight
before eventually stalling and slowly weakening. The northwestern
half of so of the forecast area will see significantly cooler
temperatures by tomorrow afternoon, up to 20F below today`s highs,
and around 10F below seasonal normals.

Across southeastern Utah, earlier showers and thunderstorms have
diminished, and the front is expected to slide the axis of deep
moisture a bit to the east, resulting in a bit more limited threat
of convection tomorrow afternoon. For southern Utah, little change
in temperatures is expected ahead of the front, with highs staying
near normal for this time of year.

For midweek and beyond, the details of the forecast look a bit
murkier than usual, with ensembles showing a good amount of
disagreement with regard to the track of the next Pacific
Northwest trough, particularly with how far south it might end up
later in the week. This would have implications for the amount of
moisture in place for western Utah, primarily. For eastern Utah,
the deep moisture never goes away, with the axis most likely
shifting a bit westward, bringing increasing coverage of afternoon
convection.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1025 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026...


KSLC...Northwest winds with VFR conditions will prevail through
Monday. These winds will remain gusty through roughly 08Z as a
cold front continues to push through the area. These gusts will
diminish overnight, with winds remaining northwesterly through the
day Monday.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAF sites through the valid period. A cold front crossing
northern Utah will switch winds to the northwest as it pushes
through the area overnight. These winds will gust in excess of 20
kts at times before diminishing overnight. Lighter winds are
expected across northern terminals Monday, while gusty southwest
winds develop once again at KCDC and KSGU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry cold front continues track south into central Utah early
this morning. The font will wash out in place across central Utah
today. This will make for a dichotomy across Utah, with cooler,
drier conditions in place across Northern Utah today, while
Southern Utah remains warm and with higher humidity in place
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are yet again possible across
southern, but mainly far southeastern Utah today.

Southerly flow across the state quickly redevelops Tuesday into
Wednesday ushering back in warmer and moister conditions across
more of the state (except for the far west and northwestern
portions of the area, which will remain on the edge of that
moisture push). Thus scattered shower and thunderstorm potential
will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday, with the better
confidence in higher moisture and shower/thunderstorm potential
mainly east of the I-15 corridor.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Church

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity