455
FXUS65 KSLC 142040
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
240 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 107 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...


- Deep moisture will remain across southern Utah Tuesday, with a
  slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2/4) in place for much
  of southern Utah.

- Deep moisture will shift north and west with time through the
  week. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place
  for much of southern and eastern Utah through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 107 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...
As the upper level low associated with Sunday`s cold
front shifts into the High Plains, the weakening boundary remains
in place across southern Utah. Since the front did not clear all
the way to Arizona, deep moisture remains south of the
front...with implications for the forecast for Tuesday.

This deep moisture combined with a subtle speed max embedded in
the southern jet will favor development of showers and
thunderstorms after about 09-12Z Tuesday...mainly south of the
remnant front. Looking at the 12Z HREF, similar to the 00Z HREF,
the 6 hour LPMM indicates a few locations with maxima over 1
inch, including ares near Zion National Park, the upper Paria
River drainages over to Capitol Reef National Park and drainages
in Glen Canyon Recreation Area. While this scenario falls short of
the confidence to issue a Flood Watch at this time, an upgrade to
a slight risk for excessive rainfall is forthcoming. Many of
Utah`s National Park and Recreation areas will be in "Probables"
for the Flash Flood Potential Rating for Tuesday.

Convection may continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night
given broad synoptic forcing.

Deep moisture will remain in place through much of the rest of the
week as a strong upper level low shifts down the Pacific Coast. As
such, the threat of flash flooding will persist, with showers and
thunderstorms capable of rainfall rates in excess of 0.25-0.50
inches per hour through at least Friday, when the upper level low
finally ejects across the Great Basin/northern Intermountain
Region. Exact timing and location of heavier showers and
thunderstorms will be somewhat dependent on ejecting shortwave
troughs in southwest flow ahead of the main low...and/or MCVs from
previous convection.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 107 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...
KSLC, Issued 107 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...
Northwest winds will persist through the
afternoon and evening, shifting to light and southeasterly after
04-07z. Winds may become light and variable at times overnight.
VFR conditions will prevail with clear skies.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Breezy southwest to westerly
flow is still in place across southern and eastern Utah from roughly
KSGU-KBCE-KPUC-KEVW, with other areas experiencing lighter
northwesterly flow behind the weakening cold front this afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop across far
southeastern Utah this afternoon, but will remain relatively weak
overall. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...After a cold front cooled northern Utah below normal,
a warming trend will bring temperatures near to above normal for
the region beginning Tuesday. Meanwhile, deep moisture in place
near the 4-Corners will spread north and west with time through
midweek and remain in place through the end of the week. The main
impact of these storms will be very heavy rain.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity