027
FXUS65 KSLC 180039
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
639 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...

- A warming trend will continue through the week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday with enhanced
  southwesterly winds coupled with low humidity.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1107 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
Hot and dry conditions will largely persist through
mid-week as Utah remains on the western periphery of a broad ridge
across the southern US. This evening, a very weak wave grazing our
area will result in scattered showers across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming, likely persisting through the overnight hours
and leading to periods of squirrelly, breezy winds. Another weak
shortwave trough crossing through MT/ID on Tuesday will draw a bit
more moisture northward into eastern Utah and thus produce
scattered afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing outflow
winds up to 40 mph. Southwesterly flow will also increase
slightly, resulting in locally critical fire weather conditions.
Isolated thunderstorms will redevelop Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons over higher terrain with daytime heating and modest
moisture sticking around.

Following the passage of the shortwave trough, high pressure will
begin to strengthen first overhead, then shift eastward by Friday
with the ridge axis lingering over the Four Corners heading into
the weekend. This is a favorable setup for monsoonal moisture to
be advected northward into Utah, therefore increasing chances for
thunderstorms and flash flooding beginning Friday and extending
likely through the weekend.




&&

.AVIATION...SLC...VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF
period. North winds are expected this evening through 03-04z,
although briefly erratic or southwest winds will remain possible.
Southerly winds will then prevail after 04z. However, there is a 30-
40% chance of rain showers and a 15% chance of thunderstorms at the
terminal after 06z tonight, which would bring periods of erratic and
gusty winds. Northwest winds should return between 19-21z tomorrow
while showers gradually diminish over northern Utah.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions generally
prevail for all regional terminals. Winds remain generally light and
diurnally driven across the airspace. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will affect northern Utah terminals as
they move east this evening and overnight and will be capable of
producing gusty and variable outflow winds to 30 kts or more.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 208 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
A weak disturbance grazing to the north this evening
will result in scattered showers and a few lightning strikes
across northern Utah overnight. These showers may be capable of
producing gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 mph. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon, primarily across
eastern Utah and higher terrain in central Utah. Similar to
tonight, these showers will also be capable of gusty winds
potentially up to 40-45 mph. Additionally, southwesterly winds
will increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons,
resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions.
Conditions will become hotter and drier through the remainder of
the work week, with critical RH across lower elevations. By
Friday, monsoon moisture will return, producing higher humidities
and chances for wetting rains.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cunningham
AVIATION...Cheng
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity