044
FXUS65 KSLC 171016
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
416 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure becomes the dominant weather feature
through the first half of the weekend, bringing drying and warming
conditions areawide. A grazing storm system passes through the
northern area late Sunday, ushering in another cooler airmass into
the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Cold temperatures remain in
place this morning across Utah and southwest Wyoming as we find
ourselves in the wake of a recent cold storm system. As moisture
lingers in the lower levels, morning satellite imagery reveals
areas of low stratus and patch fog across southwest Wyoming and
the northern Utah mountains. As we get into the heating hours of
the day, these areas of fog and low stratus will dissipate as
drier air mixes into the near surface environment. Conditions will
becoming increasingly stable across the region today as high
pressure builds into place at the surface. That said, cooler
temperatures will still remain across much of the forecast area,
helping to support another day of below-normal temperatures.

Later this evening, a shortwave trough/ grazing cold front is
expected to track across southwestern Wyoming as the storm track
remains active in the northern Rockies region. As such, minimal
relief from near to below-freezing temperatures will be seen
across Uinta County, WY and the northern Utah mountain valley
areas as we head into Saturday morning. The front itself will
contain little to no moisture, bringing virtually no precipitation
to the forecast area. The largest "impact" anticipated from this
will be the continued cold in the northern area. Otherwise, the
grazing front looks to depart rapidly through early Saturday with
temperatures warming rapidly overhead... aiding in increasing
daytime high temperatures areawide alongside continued dry
conditions.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...By Sunday morning, conditions
will be largely quiescent over the area with zonal flow prevailing
through much of the day under continued warm-air advection. High
temperatures will increase from Saturday to Sunday afternoon by up
to 10 degrees across northern Utah, resulting in highs in the upper-
60s to low-70s along the Wasatch Front and most other lower-
elevation valleys. With sunny skies, expect a beautiful fall day.

However, an upper-level trough will quickly push across the
northwestern US on Sunday, likely grazing northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming late Sunday into Monday. This system will be
fairly dry, so although the dynamics are solid, any PoPs will be
relatively low and limited to the higher terrain across northern
areas. The associated surface cold front will still be fairly strong
with temperatures dropping by about 10 degrees across northern Utah
between Sunday and Monday afternoons. That said, there is still a
small subset of ensemble members (~10%) that still track the base of
the trough through northern Utah; in this case, temperatures could
drop even further, with higher precipitation coverage and slightly
higher QPF, too. One other aspect to this grazing system is breezy
westerly winds expected across higher elevations, and particularly
Uinta Co., WY.

Behind this system, skies will clear, with the coldest temperatures
expected Tuesday morning. Although freeze conditions look borderline
at best, if the minority solution pans out, this could result in
somewhat more widespread minimum temperatures below 32F, even in
active agriculture zones. High pressure will then build heading into
mid-week, with our next chance for active weather being a closed low
heading our way from southern CA. Still, conditions look to be
fairly dry, resulting in low PoPs on Wednesday/Wednesday night
despite relatively higher confidence in the large-scale pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will transition to
northwesterly around 19-20z this afternoon, with mostly clear skies
and VFR conditions prevailing.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Most locations will experience
light, terrain-driven winds and VFR conditions over the valid TAF
period. One exception is KLGU where dense fog is very likely to
develop early this morning, with conditions improving after 15z. A
low chance for dense fog development off of Deer Creek Reservoir
also exists at KHCR between roughly 12-15z (~20% chance). Low- to
mid-level clouds over the higher terrain of northern Utah will
gradually dissipate through the morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...As the previous storm system continues to exit the region,
increasingly stable conditions will build back into place across
Utah through the next 24 hours. Cooler overhead temperatures will
linger across the area, leading to below-normal temperatures and
generally higher humidity alongside northwest winds overhead. For
northern Utah, these northwesterly winds will be evident over the
higher terrain while the central and southern area will see flows
dominated by terrain features.

Through Sunday, anticipate an areawide warming and drying trend
as high pressure controls a majority of Utah. By Sunday afternoon,
temperatures will see a stout increase from where we are now,
pushing temperatures back to above normal levels by upwards of
5-10 degrees across the western valley areas. Additionally,
humidity will reach its lowest point across the area as some of
the western Utah valleys (particularly southwest Utah) reach as
low as 15-20 percent. For the areas north of the Juab-Tooele
County line, humidity values are expected to bottom out between
25-35 percent. By Sunday evening, a grazing storm system to the
north will help to bring an increase in south to west flow for the
northern Utah mountains. There is generally high confidence that
a largely dry cold front will move across northern Utah Sunday
night/ Monday morning, becoming much weaker as it progresses into
west-central Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ114-115-120.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Webber
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Webber

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