135
FXUS65 KSLC 191114
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
514 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1002 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026...


- Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight into
  Friday, with the best coverage over northern Utah and southwest
  Wyoming. The focus of showers and storms will gradually shift
  east during the day Friday. Hail, heavy rain, and lightning
  will be the primarily threats. Flash flooding remains a threat
  as well.

- Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the weekend,
  particularly for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, with maxes
  running up to 10F above seasonal normals behind a cold front.
  That front will steadily draw drier air into the area from the
  west through the weekend.

- Moisture is expected to increase again beginning Tuesday, with
  unsettled conditions persisting for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1002 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026...
A Pacific Northwest storm system is centered near
the Idaho/Nevada/Utah triple point this evening, with the
associated cold front near a KINS-KEVW line. In a deeply moist and
unstable airmass over northern Utah, convection was fairly
widespread, with some severe cells along the Wasatch Front that
produce hail to golf ball size, strong winds, localized urban
flooding, and even one tornado that impacted Davis and Morgan
counties. Late this evening, convection is weaker and more
localized, with the strongest showers continuing over the frontal
boundary.

Convection will tend to diminish during the overnight hours as
one lobe of the low exits the area, with another expected to
rotate in by Saturday afternoon. The trough is expected to track
steadily east during the day Saturday, centered near the
Utah/Idaho border. Thus, the focus of convection will move
eastward during the day. West to northwest flow behind the low
will continue to draw drier air in front the west, steadily
decreasing the threat of convection. Behind the front,
temperatures for northern Utah are expected to run up to 10F below
seasonal normals, with southern Utah temperatures staying closer
to normal near the front.

High pressure is expected to move overhead over Utah and southwest
Wyoming on Sunday in between the exiting trough and another broad
low approaching the California coast. Guidance is in good
agreement that the California low will track eastward into the
Great Basin by Tuesday, bringing a return of moisture and
instability to the area. There still remains a good amount of
disagreement in the guidance, however, with regard to the precise
track of the system and how much it weakens as it moves onshore.
Thus, it is currently difficult to determine the areas that might
see more significant convection over the area by midweek, though
the ensembles are leaning modestly toward southern and eastern
Utah. The track of the low should have little impact on
temperatures, which should stay in the vicinity of seasonal
normals for much of the upcoming week.



&&

.AVIATION, Issued 12:15 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026...

KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. Diurnal wind shifts are expected with the
lake breeze pushing through around 16z with a northwesterly wind
shift.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected
across all airspace terminals, though KEVW and KLGU may briefly see
MVFR CIGs and/or vsbys with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with northwest winds will
prevail across most sites.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 441 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026...
A cold front is currently making its way through the
state, keeping conditions dry across much of northern, central,
and southern UT. However, for areas across eastern UT and far
northern UT near the ID border, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and subside
around sunset. Thunderstorm intensity is not forecast to reach
severe thresholds with todays storms featuring frequent lightning,
gusts to around 40mph, and perhaps a few instances of small hail.

Starting Sunday, the cold front will have pushed through the area
in its entirety with drier and cooler air filling in its wake
keeping chances for precipitation near zero through Monday.
Starting early Tuesday, an active pattern looks to redevelop with
winds clocking to southerly, enabling moisture to return to much
of the state increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms once
again through the remainder of the week.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Traphagan
AVIATION...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity