387
FXUS65 KSLC 271148
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
547 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1033 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026...


- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday
  afternoon, bringing potential for gusty winds as well as
  isolated heavy rainfall.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase further
  Friday evening, with a grazing trough bringing additional
  instability for the weekend, along with noticeably cooler
  temperatures. A more active pattern will continue for much of
  the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1038 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026...
Evening satellite and radar analysis continues to
show areas of showers and thunderstorms across western Utah from
southern Tooele County southward through Beaver County as subtle
shortwave energy continues to progress through the forecast area.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue
eastward through the late evening and early morning hours (around
3AM), primarily in northern Utah and southwest Wyoming as this
wave continues its track through the ridge in place.

The next 3 days of weather in the eastern Great Basin region will
become quite interesting as moisture from former tropical cyclone
Iselle becomes entrained into the mid-latitude flow. While we`ll
maintain an area of high pressure over the forecast area on
Thursday, an upstream trough over the PacNW region will help to
bring an influx of mid-level moisture into the entirety of the
forecast area, helping to kick off another round of diurnally
drive showers and thunderstorms. With a lack of sufficient
moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, would anticipate
an isolated heavy rainfall threat and a more pronounced threat of
strong outflow winds in excess of 40 mph. Temperature-wise, we`ll
see very little in the way of change (+/-1 degree as compared to
Wednesday), with similar changes expected in surface humidity.

The trough over the PacNW region is anticipated to remain quasi-
stationary through at least Friday afternoon, however, remnant
energy from the former eastern Pacific tropical cyclone will phase
into the flow across the Great Basin region which will help to
provide broad-scale lift across the region. This lift, paired with
the influx of lower level moisture, is expected to kick off
widespread precipitation across the northern area Friday evening
and through Saturday. Model guidance is supportive of the PacNW
trough dipping farther south and east from Saturday into Sunday,
which will help to shunt moisture and large scale lift into the
remainder of the forecast area. As such, would anticipate coverage
of precipitation to shift into the remainder of central and
southern Utah through the day on Saturday. It`s likely that the
large scale lift will help to generate abundant cloud cover which
may act to limit the amount of thunderstorm activity across the
area. In general, anticipating widespread coverage of showers with
embedded isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across Utah
and southwest Wyoming, with any thunderstorms carrying high
potential for heavy rainfall.

The shortwave associated with the previous TC will shift eastward
through Sunday morning, cutting off the broad-scale lift. That
said, there is high confidence that the PacNW trough will remain
steadfast, placing the forecast area in a favorable position for
subsequent ejecting shortwave troughs. Moisture is expected to
remain in place over the eastern Great Basin through the day on
Sunday, with conditions not showing much potential for
stabilization in the wake of the shortwave trough. Therefore,
another day of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated on Sunday
with the high terrain and adjacent valley areas east of high
terrain features expected to see the higher probability of
precipitation.

Models show higher amounts of uncertainty revolving around how
deep this PacNW trough will become and how far east it shifts
through the first half of next week. While temperatures across the
forecast area are heavily favored to be below average from
Saturday through the middle of next week, there is a fairly high
amount of uncertainty (up to 8-10 degrees) with high temperature
forecasts due to the aforementioned uncertainty in the upstream
trough.





&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the
period. Dry conditions will give way to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon along with gusty outflow winds. These become more isolated
and showery in nature later in the evening with winds become light
and variable associated with nearby showers.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for
the entire airspace through the period. Some light showers are
moving into the far southern airspace, but the remainder will remain
mostly dry before scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon.
Southwesterly winds will also increase across the western half of
the airspace with gusty and erratic winds near any convection. These
storms become more isolated and showery in nature later in the
evening with relatively light and variable winds developing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 451 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026...
There is a marginal risk for strong storms this afternoon
across northern Utah as more storms develop across most of the
state today. These storms will be locally stronger across northern
Utah as they will possess a great risk for gusty winds.
Additionally, southwest winds will increase today across the
western half of the state with minimum relative humidity in the
upper teens to low 20s leading to locally critical fire weather
conditions.

These winds will continue to strengthen and become more
widespread Friday and Saturday as a low pressure system moves into
the PNW and eventually brings a cold front through the region on
Saturday. Moisture will also increase Friday and Saturday as
tropical moisture from the Pacific is pulled into the area. This
will increase precipitation coverage, particularly across central
and northern Utah Friday and Saturday. The cold front will arrive
on Saturday which will interact with the tropical moisture to
produce widespread heavy precipitation that will greatly increase
the chances for wetting rains. Temperatures will also trend down
with the increased moisture and cooler air arriving behind the
cold front.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Webber
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity