Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
980 FXUS65 KSLC 011012 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 412 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will remain in place across Utah and southwest Wyoming through at least Tuesday. Moisture gradually increases from midweek forward, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Upper level ridging remains centered over the Great Basin region, aiding in a rather innocuous weather pattern for the next couple of days. Key Messages: - Temperatures warm back to above normal levels alongside dry conditions at the surface. - No significant weather is expected through at least Tuesday. With an area of high pressure remaining in place over Utah and southwest Wyoming, expect temperatures to continue to warm through today, reaching their highest point over the past 8 days. Across much of the forecast area, high temperatures will be upwards of 2-5 degrees warmer than the day prior, pushing highs into the upper-80s to low-90s in the lower lying valleys (including the Wasatch Front), low-100s in lower Washington County, and low-80s for Uinta County, Wyoming. Combined with the light, terrain driven winds and dry conditions, today and Tuesday are shaping up to be excellent weather for grilling and spending time outdoors. If you`re heading up into the mountains, expect a few afternoon clouds to develop over the high terrain alongside a low probability (10 percent or less) of an isolated shower in the high Uintas. Expect little change in the forecast going into Tuesday as one last day of widespread dry conditions remain in place before moisture begins to increase. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...A shift in the pattern begins on Wednesday as the stout ridge overhead begins to break down in response to a deepening longwave trough over the Upper Midwest. Increased southerly flow under this pattern will transport tropical moisture into eastern Nevada and far southwest Utah on Wednesday, resulting in increased chances for afternoon thunderstorms across these areas. Given drier lower levels still in place, dry microbursts will be the main threat for any storms that develop. Moisture will continue to be drawn up into the Great Basin on Thursday, with PWAT anomalies increasing to around 150-200% above normal across Nevada and southwest Utah. A closed low off the coast of northern California is expected to swing eastward on Friday, shunting this anomalous moisture eastward, allowing it to overspread the entirety of Utah and southwest Wyoming through the weekend. As such, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be a daily feature through the end of the week, with the main weather concern of dry microbursts gradually transitioning to a flash flood threat as early as Friday. Anyone with outdoor plans during the latter half of the week should stay tuned to the forecast as details come into focus. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal through the period. Skies remain mostly clear outside of some scattered cumulus buildups over the high terrain this afternoon. Light southeasterly winds transition to the northwest after 19z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected through the period for all regional terminals. Skies remain mostly clear this morning, with cumulus developing over the high terrain this afternoon. Light and diurnally driven winds to continue for all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure remains in place over the area, aiding in warming temperatures and a drying surface environment across Utah through at least Tuesday. In addition to the warm and dry conditions, winds will remain generally light and terrain driven. Overall, the biggest fire weather concern will be the very dry conditions that will resurface on Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon minimum humidity will fall into the 10 to 20 percent range during the daytime hours, and see fair to good recovery during the overnight hours with the exception of the thermal belts across the western half of Utah. With strong afternoon heating pairing with subtle amounts of mid-level moisture, chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the high Uintas will be very low, but not zero. Moisture increases gradually from about Wednesday forward from south to north, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across Utah. Initially, chances for wetting rains will be relatively low, but will increase more substantially as we head into the weekend as moisture is expected to peak by Saturday/ Sunday. Additionally, as a deeper southwest flow develops over the weekend, anticipate an uptick in afternoon winds over the weekend, particularly across the southern and western half of Utah. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Webber LONG TERM...Whitlam AVIATION...Whitlam FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity