349
FXUS65 KSLC 301904
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
104 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation across northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming will
  gradually diminish through the day as an upper level low exits
  to the northeast.

- As temperatures warm, the chance of Moderate HeatRisk increases
  to above 50% across the Wasatch Front and northwest Utah by the
  end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low is centered near the UT/WY/CO triple
point late this morning. Moisture continues to wrap around this
low, with an area of stratiform precipitation noted over northeast
Utah and southwest Wyoming. With H7 temperatures near the low
center around 0 to -1C, snow levels near 9kft have resulted in
snow over the higher terrain. As the upper low continues to slowly
shift northeast through the rest of the day, the current area of
precipitation will gradually pull eastward and diminish. Some
afternoon convection will be possible near the periphery of the
stratiform rain as well as south and west of it where clearer
skies reside, but these are expected to be generally isolated and
rather weak. Given the cooler airmass in place, max temperatures
today will remain 5-15 degrees below normal.

The airmass will trend drier for tomorrow while temperatures trend
warmer. The next shortwave trough is expected to graze northern
Utah on Tuesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across northern Utah on Monday as a result. Thereafter, the
northern stream remains somewhat active, with additional troughs
developing north and northwest of Utah through the week.
However, Utah should remain fairly dry during this timeframe.
Depending on how amplified some of these storm systems become,
there will be a potential for increasing southerly winds and
potential fire weather concerns, but chances for critical fire
weather conditions remain less than 40% except for potentially
Thursday when NBM chances are higher, but the latest global
deterministic models do not seem to support that so much.
Otherwise, temperatures will continue to trend upward through the
week, with valley temperatures climbing into the 90s by the end of
the coming week. This would introduce some Moderate Heat Risk
especially to portions of northwest Utah including the Wasatch
Front.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will continue through the period
for the KSLC terminal. Mostly dry conditions will develop for the
remainder of the period with skies gradually clearing. There is only
~15% chance of a brief afternoon shower. Otherwise, winds will
remain light out of the south before a brief northerly push by mid
afternoon before going back to the south later this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly VFR conditions areawide
besides some lingering MVFR across the far northeastern airspace as
wrap-around precipitation continues through the afternoon. This will
also lead to some mountain obscuration across the far northeast.
Overall, the drying and clearing trend will continue as dry air
moves into the airspace. Winds will remain light and variable across
the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The storm system that brought wetting rain to
northeast Utah will continue to exit to the northeast this
afternoon into early this evening. As it does so, precipitation
will gradually wind down. However, a few additional isolated and
generally weak showers and thunderstorms may develop across
northern and central Utah this afternoon behind the retreating
swath of precipitation.

From Sunday through the rest of the coming week, expect drier
conditions along with a warming trend as the storm track remains
north of Utah. By the end of week, afternoon max temperatures
will trend 5-15 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, afternoon min
relative humidities will fall below 15% in most valleys from
Tuesday onward, with increasingly poor overnight recoveries.
Winds will likely remain on the light side through the period,
but if any of the storms to the north end up amplifying more, then
the potential for stronger southerly winds will exist, which
could then bring critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Mahan

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