961
FXUS65 KSLC 110432
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1032 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall is in place
  across portions of southern Utah Friday through Sunday.

- There is a ~50% chance the northern valleys will see wind gusts
  in excess of 45 mph for 3 or more hours Saturday evening into
  late Saturday night ahead of a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave crossing the region embedded in
quasi-zonal flow continues to shift across northern Nevada into
northern Utah through the overnight hours. Mainly high-based
showers are noted on radar moving into far western Utah. A few
locations may see a period of light rain overnight, but widespread
rain is not expected. Given decoupling, don`t expect much of a
gusty, microburst wind threat with this high-based convection.

As broad troughing engulfs the Pacific Northwest, the upper level
ridge will continue to flatten, allowing for modest moisture
advection to shift into southern Utah Friday. The bulk of the CAMS
indicate that the highest threat of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will be across southern and eastern Utah Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Given the net moisture increase,
WPC has outlooked this area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. This correlates well with conceptual models and
guidance. The flash flood potential product for the southern Utah
national park and rec areas has every location in a "possible" for
Friday.

By Saturday, weak subsidence will likely suppress convection in
most locations, though isolated thunderstorms across far eastern
portions of the CWA including the Swell and Capitol Reef area will
represent a low end flash flood threat.

As early as Saturday evening, another period of moisture advection
will shift into southern Utah ahead of a strong cold front. This
front continues to slow down in each iteration of guidance...now
looking to reach northwestern Utah after sunrise Sunday, reaching
southern Utah by Monday morning. This may provide another window
with enhanced moisture for another round of at least isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms across southern and eastern Utah
ahead of the cold front.

As far as gusty winds ahead of the cold front, it will be a battle
between decoupling and a strong gradient whether northern valleys
will see advisory level winds Saturday evening/night into early
Monday. NBM probs still suggest around a 50% chance wind advisory
criteria will be met, but the later this cold front shifts, the
less likely wind advisory criteria will be met.

Much cooler temperatures will build into the region by Monday.
Given the slower cold front timing, the cooldown Sunday isn`t as
aggressive, around 10-15 degrees across northern Utah, with around
another 5 degrees of cooling by Monday.

Longer range, southern and eastern Utah is outlooked in a
moderate risk for heavy precipitation between the 18th and 20th.
Something to keep an eye on...and an indication that an extended
period of dry conditions is the less likely outcome through the
next few weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions are expected at the SLC terminal through the
overnight hours. A weak storm system will bring a low (20-30
percent) chance of gusty and erratic winds from showers, most likely
between 08Z and 14Z. Otherwise, southerly winds are expected to
shift to the northwest between 18Z and 20Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR
conditions through the night with generally light and terrain driven
winds. A weak storm system will bring a low (20-30 percent) chance
of gusty and erratic winds from showers for northern portions of the
airspace from the early morning to near sunrise. By mid-morning, the
most likely area for showers will shift to southwestern portions of
the airspace, with the low chance of gusty and erratic winds from
showers persisting through about midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 140 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026...

Increased westerly flow across southwest Wyoming this afternoon
will influence some briefly stronger westerly winds in the western
Uinta Basin this afternoon through early evening. Near-critical
to localized critical fire weather conditions will develop over
the far western Uinta Basin as wind gusts near 25 mph with RH
values around and just below 15%. Expect these conditions to be
short- lived and relatively localized.

Tonight a weakening boundary will push through northern Utah,
which will result in an increase in cloud cover and isolated to
widely scattered showers or virga. No wetting rains are expected
from this passing features. This will however set the stage for
locally heavy rainfall potential by Friday afternoon across
southern Utah near the Upper Escalante, Capitol Reef and the Henry
Mountains where some monsoon moisture runs into the decaying
boundary.

Southwesterly winds will increase across Western Utah on Saturday
as an upstream trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and the
ridge re-estabilishes over New Mexico. This will result in windy
conditions across western Utah Saturday through late Saturday
night and early Sunday morning, however humidity values will
remain borderline for fire weather conditions (15-20% min RH
values), combined with current fuels conditions reported as only
"approaching critical", the overall threat of critical fire
weather conditions is not particularly elevated despite the
potential for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph (50% chance) across
western Utah.

Models continue to then support this system slipping by the
region, pushing a cold front southward through Utah most likely
some time Sunday, though of note some models have slowed more in
the Sunday night to early Monday time range. Models have however
maintained consensus in this frontal passage being overwhelmingly
dry, with the best low end chances of precipitation noted across
portions of southern to eastern Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Church/Traphagan

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