481
FXUS65 KSLC 160416
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1016 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Isolated diurnal storms remain possible (~20% chance) across the
  terrain over the next several days.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier air will remain in place across the area
through at least the middle of the week. The prior trough that
brought widespread precipitation has lifted back to the north with
shortwave ridging building back into place before a more
substantial ridge redevelops across the Four Corners area later in
the week. Low and mid level moisture remains high enough over the
coming days that diurnal convection will still persist across the
higher terrain (~20-30% chance) with a few (~5% chance) storms
possible across the lower terrain. Temperatures will get back
into the 90s tomorrow with a gradual increase as the ridge
strengthens across the area.

Guidance has trended further north with a shortwave moving through
Montana on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will keep winds a bit
weaker with storm chances lower compared to prior forecasts. Winds
are now forecast to remain <30 mph for afternoon gusts. This will
limit the locally critical to elevated fire weather conditions
given that RH will also stay >15% across most locations.

The monsoon pattern starts to redevelop by the end of the weekend
as a ridge becomes centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border.
The majority of guidance has PWAT anomalies remaining above normal
through the remainder of the month which is line with the 6-10 and
8-14 day outlook.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...South winds are expected to prevail through the
night into Sunday morning before turning northwest around 19z, with
a 30% chance the wind shift will occur around 20z or later. VFR
conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period. There is a 10%
chance of a rain shower over/near the terminal Sunday afternoon
which, if it occurs could produce briefly gusty and erratic winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
areawide through the valid TAF period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop again Sunday afternoon.
Generally light winds with typical diurnal trends are expected at
area terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 128 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026...
A drier air mass will continue to shift into the
region, with humidities expected to decrease through at least
mid-week statewide. Valley RH will reach critical levels as early
as Sunday, becoming more widespread heading into the work week.
Overnight RH recoveries will become increasingly poor through at
least Wednesday morning, with many valleys only reaching 30-45%. A
system moving through the Interior Northwest will bring an
increasing threat of gusty winds...with elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday across
primarily central and southern Utah. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible today and Sunday afternoon mainly across higher terrain,
with otherwise little to no wetting rain chances.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Cheng
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity