603
FXUS65 KSLC 120859
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
259 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

.UPDATE...Updated the key messages, fire weather discussion and
aviation discussion based on current model/forecast trends.
Previous discussion follows.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record heat expected through Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
  southwestern Utah Wednesday afternoon and evening. Fire Weather
  Watches remain in effect for portions of southwestern Utah.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked across
  portions of northern Utah and southwestern Wyoming Wednesday
  afternoon and evening. There is a 5-14% chance of wind gusts in
  excess of 58 mph near any thunderstorms.

- Another round of critical fire weather conditions may occur
  ahead of another cold front Saturday afternoon and evening
  across southwestern Utah.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Monday May 11, 2026

An anomalously strong ridge currently overhead will
continue to amplify through Tuesday, which will yield some of the
warmest temperatures of the year tomorrow afternoon. Highs will
once again challenge daily records across the region, with
temperatures soaring around 20 degrees above seasonal normals.
Avoid strenuous outdoor activity if possible, and be sure to have
a way to keep cool during this anomalous warmth.

A shift in the pattern from persistent heat and bone-dry
conditions is still expected mid-week as a shortwave trough
digging into the PacNW shunts the ridge eastward. This will
introduce stronger southwesterly flow across the region Wednesday,
resulting in widespread afternoon wind gusts between 25-40 mph
across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Strongest winds are expected
across the West Desert and portions of southwest Utah, which when
combined with very low humidity, will produce a period of fire
weather conditions across these areas. See the Fire Weather
section below for additional information on this threat.

Mid-level moisture advection is expected on the backside of the
exiting ridge on Wednesday, yielding a pretty substantial
increase in PWATs across the region; PWAT anomalies across Utah
and southwest Wyoming peak around 125-150% of normal by Wednesday
afternoon. Concurrently, the aforementioned PacNW shortwave trough
is expected to brush northern Utah on Wednesday afternoon, and
when coupled with intense daytime heating will produce sufficient
forcing for scattered high-based convection. Convection may
develop first across the high terrain, but coverage is expected to
expand northeast through the afternoon. Early high- res model
data indicates a very favorable environment across central and
northern Utah (including the Wasatch Front) for both strong to
severe wind gusts given DCAPE values around 1400-1600 J/kg, as
well as small hail given substantial shear and high mid- level
lapse rates.

Thunderstorm activity wanes across the region late Wednesday as
a drier airmass quickly moves in behind the shortwave. Cooler
conditions prevail on Thursday behind the exiting system, with
temperatures moderating closer to seasonal normals across the
region. More zonal flow is expected to develop across the western
US on Friday, allowing temperatures to rise back to around 10
degrees above average areawide. More uncertainty in the forecast
exists this weekend as models work out the evolution of another
trough moving into the northwest. Still around 80% of ensemble
members show a drier solution that would only knock temperatures
down slightly for the weekend, but there is still 20% that show a
much stronger cooldown with better chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. South to southwest winds will shift more
southerly between 09-11Z. Winds will shift back to the southwest
around 18Z and gradually become more northwesterly between
1830-1930Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable
conditions with clear skies will continue with light and diurnally
driven winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry conditions  will continue across the
region today with another round of near record to record high
temperatures expected. As a disturbance approaches the region
Wednesday, a combination of increasing southwesterly winds up to
45 mph and continued very low humidities will bring critical fire
weather conditions to southwestern Utah. A Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for fire weather zones 495, 496, and 497.

As a cold front approaches northwestern Utah Wednesday afternoon
and evening, isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms will
develop across much of the region. Expect strong, gusty microburst
winds up to 60 mph near any of these thunderstorms along with
lightning.

The cold front will cross the state Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning, bringing the most pronounced cooling on order of
15 degrees or so across northern Utah, around 5 degrees closer to
the Arizona border. Dry conditions will build into the state
behind this system Thursday, with temperatures around 10 to 15
degrees above normal by Friday. Another cold front will cross the
state Saturday, bringing the potential for another round of
critical fire weather conditions to southwestern Utah Saturday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ495>497.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Whitlam/Mahan

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