884
FXUS65 KSLC 141653
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1053 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 139 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026...


- Flash flood threat continues today, especially for southwest
  Utah and the southern/central mountains including recent burn
  scars and normally dry washes, slot canyons, and slick rock
  areas.


- Much drier conditions will build into the region this weekend
  into early next week, along with temperatures returning to near
  to slightly above normal by late in the week. Elevated to
  locally critical fire weather conditions will occur across
  portions of central and southern Utah from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A Mesoscale Convective System associated with a
SSW to NNE oriented upper-level jet is currently moving through
southwest Utah as of this writing. This is bringing a number of
morning Flash Flood Warnings to various sensitive areas including
Zion National Park. This MCS is moving into an environment in
central Utah with 500-1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE per the SPC
Mesoanalysis, along with 25kts of bulk shear (closer to 50kts near
the jet nose itself). Combined with an existing pool of PWATs
near an inch and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, this
MCS is efficiently wringing out rainfall. A Flood Watch for flash
flooding continues through midnight for southwest Utah and the
southern/central mountains (the latter largely due to recent burn
scars).

Moving forward through today, looking at CAMs the RAP/HRRR have
the best handle on the MCS location and intensity; they advance it
northward along the I-15 corridor and mountains to the east of
I-15 through at least Millard County, thus suggesting a threat to
the Cottonwood and Widemouth 2 burn scars in addition to other
recent burn scars. Beyond central Utah, CAM confidence breaks down
in terms of how well it holds together tracking farther north.
For what it`s worth, the RAP has the best handle on the current
location and is depicting the MCS holding together all the
way through the Wasatch Front / Wasatch Back and up to the UT/ID
border, reaching the southern/central Wasatch front around 2-4pm
and up to the northern Wasatch Front and Cache Valley by 6pm. Will
continue to monitor this MCS through the afternoon.

In the wake of today`s jet/shortwave, much drier air moves into
the region overnight into tomorrow along with synoptic subsidence.
PWATs dropping closer to a half inch. CAMs depict isolated
convective initiation in the typical terrain-focused areas, though
one thing to watch for based on past experience is monsoonal
moisture tends to hold on a little longer than models expect, so
would not be surprised if convective initiation is more
widespread than currently shown. In that case, would expect
initiation in any areas favored by southwest flow, depending on
the degree of overall subsidence.

Expect a similar trend of isolated to scattered convection Sunday
along with temperatures warming around 5 degrees as heights build
over the Central Rockies. A generally dry westerly flow aloft
then sets in for Monday through next week, bringing drier and
warmer conditions. Any drying/warming can bring a return of
elevated fire weather concerns, depending on whether any weak
shortwave troughs can bring elevated winds as well. As of now this
appears unlikely, so the chance of critical fire weather
conditions is isolated over pockets of mainly central and southern
Utah.

The next round of monsoonal moisture is highly uncertain from
looking at various ensembles. The general theme is many members
slowly bring monsoonal moisture back into the area lake next week
and on through August, though there is little agreement on timing.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 522 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026...

KSLC...Expect southerly winds to continue at the terminal through
the morning, shifting to the northwest around 20-21Z. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will shift north into the
terminal area near 00Z, with gusty winds and ceilings around 5000
feet or so. Expect any remnant convection to largely end by 03Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop across central and southern Utah after
18Z, reaching the southern-most portion of the Wasatch Front after
21Z...and then shifting north with time. Activity will wane after
03Z. Very heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds and periods of MVFR
conditions will occur with the stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 139 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026...
One more day of widespread showers and
thunderstorms is expected as this monsoon surge comes to an end.
High pressure will shift eastward, with Utah transitioning to a
dry southwest to west flow through at least midweek. Minimum
humidities will fall to critical levels for most valley locations
Sunday into Monday.

A system crossing to the north may bump winds enough on Tuesday
and Wednesday to bring elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions to portions of central and southern Utah each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ116-117-122>129.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Van Cleave
AVIATION...Kruse
FIRE...Kruse

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity