235
FXUS65 KSLC 271802
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1202 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1056 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026...

- Isolated to scattered convection can be expected across northern
  Utah on Monday with more isolated convection across southern
  Utah. Moisture will increase again by Tuesday, bringing an
  increased threat of flash flooding, before decreasing
  substantially from Thursday onward.

- Hot temperatures as high as the lower 100s can be expected for
  the valleys of northwest Utah as well as the Uinta Basin through
  Monday, with highs in the upper 100s for portions of southern
  Utah, including Zion National Park. Overnight lows will remain
  in the 70s to around 80, limiting the potential for overnight
  relief from the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1034 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026...
High pressure remains centered over the OK/TX
Panhandles and northeast NM this evening. Utah saw a slight
influx of moisture today, with PWATs across southern Utah climbing
to 1-1.2 inches while northern Utah remained under 1 inch. Aided
by this increased moisture and a subtle vort lobe rotating around
the high and lifting through Utah, increased shower and
thunderstorm activity was noted today. While thunderstorms are
waning with the loss of daytime heating, rain showers, generally
light, will continue to spread into northern Utah tonight as the
vort lobe continues to lift north, while they taper off across
southern Utah. These showers will continue through the day on
Monday across northern Utah, along with isolated thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Southern Utah should see generally isolated
showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

By Tuesday, the high pressure will shift closer to the Four
Corners region, bringing a more southerly flow to southern Utah
and Arizona, which should help spread more moisture into the area
and allowing for increased convective coverage. However, this
renewed moisture surge will be brief, as the high will continue to
gradually shift westward through the week. Towards the end of the
week, the high pressure will be centered too far west to favor the
monsoon pattern, leading to drier conditions. This drying trend
should begin on Thursday or Friday and will likely extend through
at least the first half of next week. Cluster analysis of global
ensembles are in good agreement on the general large-scale
evolution.

Otherwise, hot temperatures will remain in place areawide through
the week, with most valley areas seeing highs hovering near or
above 100F. Conditions will be exacerbated tonight through
Monday with cloud cover helping to maintain warm overnight lows.
Increasing precipitation midweek is expected to cool the airmass
enough to reduce HeatRisk to mostly Moderate in the valleys, but
when the airmass dries out again late week with strong high
pressure overhead, HeatRisk will increase again, with widespread
areas of Major to Extreme HeatRisk noted.



&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening
with cigs remaining well above 6000 ft AGL. Southerly winds are
expected to shift to the northwest between 20Z and 22Z. There is a
30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the terminal this evening, with the most likely time between 02Z and
04Z. Any storms that develop would have the potential to bring gusty
and erratic winds as well as a low chance of lightning.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see
prevailing VFR conditions through the evening with generally light
and terrain driven winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
again expected to develop this afternoon, initially focused over the
higher terrain over central and southern Utah, with these storms
drifting into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the
evening. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce
gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and brief mountain obscurations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 411 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026...
Monsoonal moisture lingers across the region through
Wednesday, with daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continuing as a result. Coverage will be most
widespread today, then becomes more limited to eastern portions of
the state Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms through this period will
be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and
isolated areas of heavy rainfall. High pressure quickly builds
across the west Thursday onward, bringing a much drier airmass to
the region through the weekend. This pattern will result in
gradually increasing temperatures and a downtrend in relative
humidity for the latter half of the week, with near-record heat
and critically dry conditions developing statewide as early as
Friday. Overnight humidity recoveries also become very limited
especially across the western half of the state beginning Friday
morning.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ101>107-114-124-
     128-130.

     Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Traphagan
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity