490
FXUS65 KSLC 220434
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1034 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1001 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...


- The threat for severe weather, specifically gusty winds in
  excess of 58 mph, is waning across the region late this evening,
  though nocturnal convection may still produce gusty and erratic
  winds through early Wednesday morning.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
  across much of UT and southwest WY each afternoon within this
  forecast as monsoonal moisture lingers.

- The risk for flash flooding remains elevated through Wednesday,
  with much of UT outlined within a slight risk (2/4) of exceeding
  flash flood guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1001 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...
The threat for severe winds we`ve observed across
much of northern and eastern Utah this evening will wane through
the remainder of tonight as instability decreases across the area.
High-res models hint at the potential for some gusty, downsloping
outflow winds into the Uinta Basin into early Wednesday morning,
but are likely to stay sub-severe (<58 kts) given an increasingly
unfavorable environment as DCAPE decreases across the area.
Nocturnal showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue
overnight across much of the region through around mid-to-late
morning.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
once again along the high terrain Wednesday afternoon, with a
potentially more efficient heavy rainfall threat across much of
the region, as supported by a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for
excessive rainfall from WPC across much of Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Weaker flow aloft will create favorable conditions for
storms to become anchored to terrain, which exacerbates the flash
flood risk for tomorrow. As usual, areas of highest concern
include normally dry washes, slot canyons, and recent burn scars.
Those planning to head outdoors in these areas tomorrow should
reconsider plans. Those living in a location vulnerable to flash
flooding should have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Thursday onward, we`ll see a gradual downtrend in monsoonal
moisture areawide as an upper-level trough off the coast of the
PacNW introduces drier southwesterly flow across the region.
However, ample amounts of moisture will linger across the region
through the weekend, with PWATs in the 0.7-1.0" range. As we
remain under the influence of the broad ridging pattern into at
least the early weekend, daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue through this period, though with lower
flash flooding risk and better potential for potentially strong
to severe storms.


&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...Monsoonal pattern continues. Outside of precipitation
influences, winds will favor a diurnally normal pattern. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds will be especially possible near
thunderstorms, with more modestly gusty conditions with showers.
There will be around a 20-30% chance of showers/thunderstorms
overnight. Thunderstorm chances then increase late morning through
Wednesday afternoon and evening. VFR conditions favored to persist,
but any heavier cell over the terminal may result in brief periods
of reduced CIGS/VIS.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...An active weather pattern will
persist as monsoonal moisture remains. Isolated to scattered shower
and thunderstorms will persist across the area overnight. Area wide
thunderstorm activity then will begin to once again increase in
coverage late morning on through Wed evening. This activity will
bring periods of heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty and erratic
outflow winds, and potentially small hail. Outside of precipitation
and outflow influences, winds at area terminals will favor a
diurnally normal pattern and direction. VFR conditions are also
favored to generally prevail, but any stronger cell directly atop a
terminal will bring potential for periods of reduced CIGS/VIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 116 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026...
Monsoonal moisture remains in place throughout UT
increasing humidities and chances for showers / thunderstorms across
the state, helping moderating fire weather conditions statewide.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms see a notable uptick across
the entirety of the state today as a stronger monsoonal push arrives
this afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along
higher terrain parallel to I-15 each afternoon over the next several
days around 1200-1400 with gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and
lightning. Some storms this afternoon, particularly across northwest
UT and southeast UT may feature severe wind gusts in excess of
58mph. Winds will generally remain light terrain driven
/ diurnal over the next several days other than thunderstorm
influenced winds and gusts.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for UTZ113-115>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity