120
FXUS65 KSLC 131241
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
641 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 205 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026...


- A slight risk for excessive rainfall is in effect for portions
  of southwestern Utah Thursday, with the remainder of the state
  in a marginal risk. A marginal risk continues for the entire
  state through Friday.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked across
  much of western and central Utah Thursday afternoon and evening.
  There is a 5-10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph across
  this area.

- A drier pattern will build into the region this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1032 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026...
High pressure over the southern Plains today will be shifting
westward through the end of the week, allowing more of a
southwesterly flow to spread into the area. Afternoon PWATs today
ranged from 0.9 inches across far northern and northeast Utah and
southwest Wyoming to 1.2 inches across southwest Utah. This
allowed scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
area again, most of which should gradually diminish overnight.
However, isolated rain showers will remain possible through the
night.

For Thursday, PWATs will remain largely similar to today, then
trend slightly downward for Friday. However, in between the ridge
axis to the east and a mean trough developing to the west, a
series of shortwave weather disturbances is progged to eject
across Utah Thursday and Friday. Larger-scale lift and increased
jet support will favor more widespread and stronger storms, which
will in turn bring an increased potential for heavy rain, small
hail, and gusty winds. Thursday should generally feature the most
active weather day this week, as thunderstorm activity may
decrease a bit for Friday owing to the moisture trends.

For Saturday and Sunday, PWATs continue to trend downward, to 1
inch or less in most areas. As a result, convective activity will
decrease for the weekend, although likely not completely dry, as
some terrain-based showers are still anticipated. Thereafter,
there is still some model spread in relation to the ridge position
for next week and whether significant moisture will return. There
are some indications that moisture may return as early as Monday.
Latest deterministics, however, are not very promising in that
regard, and NBM trends currently keep PWATs and PoPs on the lower
side through at least the middle of next week. After cooler
temperatures through Friday, temperatures will start to gradually
climb again over the weekend, returning closer to climatological
normals by the early to middle part of next week, especially if
the airmass does remain on the drier side.




&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Showers will continue to impact the terminal
through 13-15Z. South winds will shift to the northwest between 19-
20Z.  There is a 30 percent chance thunderstorms will impact the
terminal after 20Z, with a 5% chance of winds in excess of 58 mph
with these thunderstorms.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...An area of showers with
embedded thunderstorms will continue to cross southeastern Utah and
northern Utah this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the entire airspace after 18Z...with a 5-10%
chance of wind gusts in excess of 58 mph near thunderstorms.  MVFR
to IFR conditions will occur near heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 157 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026...
A monsoon surge will continue to bring the threat of showers and
thunderstorms and associated gusty and erratic winds through the
next few days. By this weekend, drier air will work into the
region as high pressure shifts eastward. Humidities will quickly
fall across the region over the weekend, with widespread minimum
humidities near 15 to 20 percent for valleys and 30 to 45 percent
for mountains by Sunday. Those low daytime humidities will remain
in place through at least early next week. Any relief from these
low humidities will be tied to whether high pressure will shift
into a more beneficial location for another monsoon surge.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...
AVIATION...Kruse
FIRE WEATHER...

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity