Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
380 FXUS65 KSLC 290437 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1037 PM MDT Thu May 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Localized critical fire weather conditions will continue across the Henry Mountains and San Rafael Swell Friday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will develop across much of the region Friday afternoon and evening. There is a 5% chance of wind gusts up to 40 mph near any thunderstorms. - Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Saturday into early Sunday. Occasional lightning and periods of graupel will occur with these showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...An upper low is currently noted on satellite water vapor imagery centered over central/southern CA this evening. Ahead of this low, Utah remains under a moderate southerly flow aloft with a dry airmass in place. Surface winds across the area have trended downward and will continue to decrease through the rest of this evening. Widespread critical fire weather conditions across south-central and southeast Utah have diminished, and the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. The low will eject into Utah on Friday. As it does so, the stronger southerly winds will become confined to eastern Utah. Localized critical fire weather conditions can still be expected across east-central and southeast portions of the forecast area as a result. Otherwise, cooler conditions and lighter winds will spread in from the west, along with some showers and thunderstorms. The showers will begin across southwest Utah late Friday morning, then spread into central Utah during the afternoon. Northern Utah may also start seeing a few showers by late afternoon. The showers may begin on the dry side, but are expected to become increasingly wet through the day. While significant precipitation is not expected (the latest NBM has less than 50% chance of 0.25 inches through Friday afternoon), there is a 50-70% chance of at least 0.10 inches across the central Utah mountains and adjacent valleys. There will be a threat of gusty outflow winds especially along the leading edge of the showers. However, latest hi-res models keep strong outflows (>40 mph) very isolated as the low levels moisten. As the low lifts into northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming Friday night into Saturday, precipitation will become more confined to that area during that timeframe. Precipitation will also be more productive, with a 50-85% chance of greater than 0.3 inches across the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains and southwest Wyoming from midnight Friday night through midnight Saturday night. The cooler temperatures will also spread into northern and eastern Utah for Saturday, with max temperature ranging from around 5 degrees below normal for southwest Utah to 15 degrees below normal for northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. Given the cooler airmass, snow levels may drop as low as 9kft, and a few inches of snow can be expected across mainly the high Uintas Friday night through Saturday. As the storm system exits the area, a weak trailing trough will cross the area Saturday night through Sunday maintaining isolated showers across northern Utah. Thereafter, dry conditions will settle into the area while temperatures gradually trend warmer through the week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will remain largely southeasterly overnight, though may be light and variable at times. Confidence is low in wind direction Friday afternoon, with winds likely transitioning to northwesterly between 18-20z. However, showers developing after 21z will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds primarily out of the west to southwest. More rainfall is expected to develop Friday night, with a low chance for MVFR CIGs. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will be largely light and terrain-driven overnight, increasing out of the south after 18z across much of the area, but especially eastern Utah. Scattered showers will start to push into far southwestern Utah after 15z, with a low chance for isolated thunder. Showers will overspread the state from southwest to northeast, reaching the Wasatch Front after 21z or so. More persistent rainfall is expected to develop across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming Friday night, with a chance for MVFR CIGs (even IFR at KEVW). && .FIRE WEATHER...An upper level low will slowly eject across the region, bringing an increased potential for wetting rain across northern Utah as well as the higher terrain of central and southern Utah Friday into Saturday. Some thunderstorms may contain gusty and erratic microburst winds up to 40 mph Friday afternoon and evening. After the upper level low departs the region on Saturday, a much hotter, drier pattern will develop Sunday and remain in place for much of the next week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity