368
FXUS65 KSLC 150354
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
954 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deep moisture will remain across southern Utah Tuesday, with a
  slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2/4) in place for much
  of southern Utah.

- Deep moisture will shift north and west with time through the
  week. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place
  for much of southern and eastern Utah through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A relatively cool and stable airmass resides across
much of northern and central Utah this evening, in the wake of a
cold front which is largely stalled along a line extending from
Moab to just north of Cedar City. Lingering moisture along and
south of this boundary supported isolated convection earlier this
afternoon, which has since shifted eastward into Colorado.

The flow aloft will back on Tuesday in response to the next upper
low digging along the Pacific Northwest coastline, which will lift
the frontal boundary northward, and allow moisture to return
northward into southern and central Utah. This moisture return
will begin as early as late tonight, with some hi-res guidance
suggesting pre-dawn convection developing across southwest and
south central Utah, followed by a round of afternoon and evening
convection across central and southern Utah. There is a fair
amount of spread across the guidance spectrum with respect to
coverage and intensity of convection Tuesday afternoon/evening
across central and southern Utah, however the threat for heavy
rainfall will exist with any stronger/organized convection as
deep layer shear increases above 20 kts.

As the upper low continues to dig south along the coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, increased forcing will bring an increase in
convection as deep layer moisture spreads across the forecast
area. This will persist through Thursday as the upper low begins
translating east through the Great Basin, with the trough axis
finally swinging through the forecast area later Friday and sweeps
remaining moisture out of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal during the
entire forecast period. Light northwesterly will prevail this
evening before becoming variable and switch to light diurnally-
driven southeasterly winds around 5-6Z. This flow will prevail
through the early morning hours, switch to light NW winds around 17Z
and then switch again to gusty SE flow around 3Z Tuesday evening.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out late
Tuesday evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail across all regional terminal sites through the TAF period.
Diurnally-driven winds are forecast across all the sites throughout
most of forecast period. Strong Gusty winds will likely occur
towards the end of the TAFs period, at the majority of the sites.
Weak Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday
afternoon or evenings, especially at the southern terminal sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 240 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026...
After a cold front cooled northern Utah below normal,
a warming trend will bring temperatures near to above normal for
the region beginning Tuesday. Meanwhile, deep moisture in place
near the 4-Corners will spread north and west with time through
midweek and remain in place through the end of the week. The main
impact of these storms will be very heavy rain.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Seaman
AVIATION...Tekoe
FIRE WEATHER...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity