885
FXUS65 KSLC 192205
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
305 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Valley rain and mountain snow is currently ongoing
across southern UT and will persist through Thursday evening.
Across northern UT, isolated light valley rain and mountain snow
is expected to persist through at least Friday morning with likely
minimal accumulations. A dry period settles in this weekend
lasting through at least mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Saturday)...A closed low continues to
circulate over southern California, slowly nudging eastward into
Arizona overnight tonight. While still far removed from this low,
southern Utah in particular will continue to see valley rain and
mountain snow given weakening upper-level diffluence across the
area. So far, liquid equivalent across the southern mountains has
been broadly 0.50-1.00" over the last 48 hours. Showers have even
developed across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, though are weak
at best, with most areas seeing less than 0.10" liquid equivalent
over the last day or so. A brief lull in precipitation is likely
this evening before gradually increasing in coverage statewide
later tonight and into tomorrow morning. By the afternoon,
precipitation will become more showery in nature, with even a low
chance of thunder in the mountains. Snow levels will continue
hover around 7500 ft.

One area of forecast uncertainty is any precipitation that
develops Thursday evening and overnight across northern Utah. As
the aforementioned closed low pushes eastward, it seems a weak
wave will eject northward, potentially aiding the development of
some wrap-around precipitation. Some high-res guidance suggests a
broad area of light-moderate precipitation falling; while overall
QPF is very little, there is quite the tail on the high end of the
distribution. The NBM 25th-75th percentile for 24-hr QPF is
anywhere between 0.00-0.50" in the northern mountains, with the
90th percentile being even higher up to 0.75".

Isolated showers are likely to persist into Friday, particularly
over higher terrain and across extreme southern Utah where
initial high-res guidance is showing precipitation further north
than other deterministic solutions. This will be something to
monitor as further runs come in.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Saturday)...As the low centered well
to the south of the CWA continues eastward, dry easterly flow aloft
will keep conditions calm and mild through the remainder of the
weekend. There is a hint in the latest deterministic model of the
aforementioned low nudging northeasterly by Sunday morning, which
would promote a chance of precipitation in southern Utah, with
warmer temperatures raising snow levels while surface temps remain
somewhat stagnant through the weekend.

By the start of the work week, the flow aloft becomes northerly over
the CWA as a weak ridge builds off the SoCal coast and temperatures
again rise above seasonal norms. Global model solutions concur on a
quick-moving low passing through the northern Rockies and plunging a
shortwave cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday. This
front appears mostly dry, although at this point can`t rule out a
few snow showers in the very northern mountains, with temps dropping
a bit to just below seasonal norms. Though beyond the range of the
forecast period, current model ensembles suggest a rebound to warm,
dry conditions for Thanksgiving day.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions remain in place over the KSLC
terminal through the next 24 hours with lower level cloud cover
expected to increase through the evening and overnight hours.
Between around 09Z and 12Z there is a 30-35% chance of light rain
showers developing, allowing for CIGs to drop to 6kft AGL or less.
Otherwise, light southerly winds will remain in place over the
terminal through around 00Z before reverting to a light north to
light and variable flow through around 02Z before reverting back to
southerly flow. There is a 40% chance that south winds remain in
place through the next 18 hours.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Rain showers are expected to
continue through the lower elevations across southern Utah through
the overnight hours, with snowfall expected above 7000ft MSL. VFR
conditions are expected to be maintained for elevations below 7000ft
MSL with IFR conditions expected for higher elevation sites. There
is around a 30% chance for light rain showers to develop in areas
north of about KPVU early Thursday morning, though VFR conditions
will also be maintained.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Verzella/Webber

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity