211
FXUS65 KSLC 012159
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
359 PM MDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather will continue across the region
through Friday. A warming and drying trend will begin over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...A mean longwave trough has become
established across the western CONUS this afternoon. Embedded within
this trough, several shortwave disturbances will continue to rotate
through the area. A shortwave trough currently moving through Utah,
combined with steep lapse rates owing to cold air aloft, has spawned
some snow showers this afternoon. These showers should wane this
evening as a weak shortwave ridge builds into the area. The heavier
showers could result in briefly impactful weather, although
additional accumulations will generally remain light. A few CAMs do
continue to produce some lake-effect precipitation southeast of the
GSL tonight, but the majority do not and local guidance only has up
to a 10% chance of occurrence.

The next impactful disturbance is currently noted over the NorCal
coast. This shortwave trough will rotate southeast along the Sierra
Nevada tonight and along the UT/AZ border tomorrow. Although showers
will develop again tomorrow across much of the area, the greatest
coverage of showers and highest precipitation totals will occur
across southern Utah. Even across the south, however, generally sub-
advisory snow totals are expected, an inch or less in the valleys
and 2-5 inches in the mountains, with locally higher amounts along
higher peaks such as in the Tushars. Showers will continue on
Thursday as the trough remains in place, its axis cutting across
Utah. Again, showers will remain generally sub-advisory. However,
there is a potential for a deformation axis to set up which could
bring longer-duration precipitation and bump amounts up...something
to monitor.


.LONG TERM (After 00z Friday)...Precipitation is expected to
linger into Thursday evening in the central and southern Utah
mountains as a deep trough slowly nudges eastward. The axis of said
trough translates through Arizona into New Mexico Friday into
Saturday, maintaining a threat of Friday afternoon convective snow
showers in the higher elevations throughout the CWA. Upper level
winds shift to a northeasterly direction for Friday night into
Saturday, promoting a slight chance of upslope convection in the
central/S Utah mtn for Saturday afternoon.

As a high pressure ridge builds off the CA coast, Saturday`s local
winds and cold advection from the departing trough will wrestle with
the drying airmass and solar heating to keep a lid on how fast
temperatures rise during the weekend. That said, by Sunday we should
see a return to normal temps across the region, rising to at least 5
degrees F above for the start of the workweek. Models lean toward a
weak shortwave moving through N Utah/SW Wyoming Monday evening into
Tuesday,slowing the warming trend and offering minimal
accumulations.

After the passage of this system, ensemble clusters and global
deterministic models show a building and deepening high pressure
ridge through the week, maintaining a dry airmass and further
increasing temps. A glance at the CPC 8-14 day outlook confirms this
solution, with temps likely above normals and precip likely below
for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail, although scattered
snow showers will be capable of lowering conditions into MVFR range
through around 03Z. Northwest winds will last through around 03Z,
transitioning to southeast after. Mountain obscuration will last
through much of the TAF period, with dry conditions after 03Z, then
scattered snow showers after 18Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
throughout, although scattered snow showers in southwest Wyoming and
northern Utah and isolated snow showers at KCDC and KBCE will be
capable of MVFR conditions. Snow showers will taper off around 03Z.
Clouds will continue to bring mountain obscuration through the TAF
period, with isolated to scattered snow showers after 18Z.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ108.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ110>113-117.

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ021.

&&

$$

Cheng/Verzella/Wilson

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