468
FXUS65 KSLC 221014
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
314 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dense fog and stratus will continue to impact northern
valleys into Saturday morning. Light precipitation along the
northwest side of an upper level low will bring light
precipitation to portions of southern Utah Sunday. Colder
temperatures in the wake of a dry cold front will build into the
region Tuesday. The next significant storm looks to arrive next
weekend, with a pattern shift toward much colder temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...While the weather pattern through most of the next
week will remain active across the West, impacts to Utah will be
restricted to a few rounds of light precipitation, Washington
County gap winds, and the potential first freeze of the year
across lower Washington County and the Virgin River corridor.

Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates an upper
level low slowly shifting eastward near San Diego. An active
northern stream is shifting into the Pacific Northwest. Dense fog
has developed across portions of western Davis and western Weber
Counties, particularly near the West Davis Corridor. Stratus has
developed and spread across several northern valleys including the
Cache and I-15 corridor in eastern Box Elder County.

Dense fog is likely to persist across western Weber and Davis and
perhaps northern Salt Lake County through 9 AM or so. A dense fog
advisory has been issued for Weber/Davis to account for periods of
near 0 visibility. If the fog lifts into stratus in this area, may
be able to cancel this advisory early...but will continue to
monitor.

The upper level low near San Diego will shift east and then
northeast through the weekend, crossing the 4 Corners region
Sunday afternoon and evening. Light precipitation is expected
across portions of south central and southeastern Utah Sunday.

A shortwave trough embedded in the northern stream will dig into
the Intermountain Region Monday. The majority of ensemble members
now support this trough digging south and east into the central
Rockies, bringing a mostly dry cold front through Utah Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. High temperatures will cool
around 5 to 10 degrees behind this front across much of the region
Tuesday.

The coldest temperatures of the season will impact lower
Washington County and the Virgin River corridor near Zion National
Park. Current forecast is for temperatures to approach freezing by
Tuesday morning, especially along the Virgin River. St. George and
the I-15 corridor north toward Cedar City will likely remain a few
degrees warmer due to a gap winds in the wake of the front.
Guidance suggests peak wind gusts around 40 mph are most probable
Monday night into Tuesday morning, highest for the towns near/in
Black Ridge including Hurricane, La Verkin and Toquerville. Will
need to monitor for Freeze Watches especially for the Virgin River
corridor the next several shifts.

While previous packages have discussed a threat for mountain snow
and even valley snow for Thanksgiving, the vast majority of the
ensemble members now support upper level ridging across Utah, with
perhaps light precipitation across the Bear River Range. But fear
not, there is a potentially significant storm lurking beyond 7
days.

Nearly all ensemble members suggest a deep trough will develop
across the West next weekend. While timing and details differ
across the major ensemble systems, the vast majority bring a
period of a least light snow through the Wasatch Front. This comes
at a price though as the models are suggesting a shift toward a
much colder pattern Saturday through early the next week.
Something to monitor moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Low clouds and favorable conditions for patchy
to locally dense fog will last through 17Z. Patchy vicinity fog
nearby has resulted in LIFR to MVFR conditions. VFR conditions
will prevail, but any fog that settles at the airfield will be
capable of lowering conditions from VFR. Light southeast winds
will transition to light northwest around 17Z with largely clear
conditions.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...MVFR ceilings will prevail
through the TAF period at KLGU. Low clouds and patchy to locally
dense fog capable of lowering conditions into LIFR to MVFR range
will last through 17Z for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah.
Light winds will last through the TAF period with mostly clear
conditions after 17Z. Scattered to broken clouds in VFR range are
likely for southern Utah. Winds will range from east to northeast,
with gusts around 20 knots for far southern Utah.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for UTZ104.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Wilson

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