595
FXUS65 KSLC 110436
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1036 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall will continue across much
  of Utah through at least Friday. Expect an increased threat of
  flash flooding, primarily across slot canyons, normally dry
  washes, slick rock areas, and recent burn scars.

- Temperatures will decrease 10-15 degrees by the end of the week
  with slightly drier air pushing into the area by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered near the Four Corners
region this evening. While westerly flow aloft is in place across
the northern half of Utah, southerly flow across northern AZ and
southern NV continue to facilitate the flow of moisture into the
area. Latest analysis shows generally between 0.8-1.1 inches of
PWAT across the forecast area. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the late
evening hours before diminishing overnight.

For Tuesday, as moisture remains in place, expect scattered
convection to develop again in the afternoon. Initial rounds of
convection look to be tied to the higher terrain, then models
suggest that remnants of the MCV currently over southern AZ could
potentially rotate around the periphery of the high and lift north
through portions of western Utah during the late afternoon
through evening hours, then across northern Utah overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will be accompanied by the typical
threats of flash flooding and gusty outflow winds.

The ridge axis is progged to shift east for the middle to latter
part of the week. This will bring more of a southwesterly flow to
the area which will start spreading some drier air into the area,
with PWATs gradually decreasing, especially Thursday into the
weekend. However, a shortwave trough which is progged to eject
across northwest Utah on Thursday will provide sufficient lift
that will interact with lingering low-level moisture to result in
more widespread convection, with some added shear to result in
potentially stronger storms.

Models then hint at the drying trend continuing into next week as
the ridge axis shifts over Utah. This is supported by various EC
and CMC ensemble members, although the GFS keeps the ridge axis
farther east with higher PWATs remaining in place over Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds will continue at the terminal
through the night, though a brief period of east-southeast winds
may occur through midnight. Tuesday afternoon, expect a wind shift
to northwest around 19z, but winds will be gusty and erratic at
times, due to showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions
generally prevail for most terminals, though MVFR VIS may develop
briefly under heavy rainfall. Outside of outflow winds up to 40 mph,
winds remain generally light and diurnally driven through the TAF
period. Smoke will continue to reduce visibility at times near
Henefer, Richfield, Fillmore, St. George and Cedar City as well as
between Ephraim and Huntington due to wildfires in the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1249 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026...
The monsoon pattern remains in place for the remainder
of the week. This moisture will primarily be focused across the
southern 2/3rds of the area through midweek before a trough moving
in from the west helps to develop more convection across the north
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also decrease by 10-15 degrees
by the end of the week. Nocturnal convection will be possible through
the week, but details will likely remain uncertain on where and when
until the day of any nocturnal activity as these features are usually
based on how the convection evolves during the day.

This trough will bring slightly drier air to the region for this
weekend which will reduce the flash flooding probabilities. It will also
slightly increase southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday, but the
magnitude of these winds currently look to remain below 30 mph.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Kruse
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

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