044
FXUS65 KSLC 111038
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
438 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Heavy rainfall will remain a threat today, with
a heightened severe thunderstorm potential as a strong cold front
crosses the area late in the day. Cooler and drier condition can be
expected for Sunday before temperatures trend warmer through the
early part of next week. The next storm system will impact the area
during the middle part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southwesterly flow over Utah this morning will
strengthen today ahead of an approaching storm system. Meanwhile,
abundant moisture remains in place, with the latest analysis showing
around 1-1.2 inches of PWAT across southern Utah and between 0.7-0.9
inches across the north. These values are around 200-350% of normal
for this time of year. Widespread rain showers across southern and
eastern Utah overnight should continue to gradually shift east
through mid-morning, leaving just isolated to scattered activity in
its wake.

Another round of significant weather can be expected to develop by
this afternoon. Increasing ascent ahead of the approaching storm,
combined with instability of 500-1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and SFC-500mb
shear of 30-50kt, will result in a potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of and near the associated cold front, which
will arrive over northwest Utah this afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Marginal Risk for severe storms over almost the
entirety of the forecast area for today. Storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and hail, in addition to the continued threat
of heavy rain. While heavy rain will be possible areawide, the focus
will shift more into northern Utah today. Northern Utah is expected
to see more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially along
the cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Across
southern Utah, expect scattered coverage of more discrete cells
today rather than the widespread swaths of moderate to locally heavy
precipitation that was more common over the past two days.

The cold front will continue to make its way across Utah overnight
and into early tomorrow morning. Much colder air will spread into
the area behind the front, and snow levels will quickly plummet,
allowing for snow accumulations across the northern Utah mountains
above around 6500 ft through tomorrow morning. Because the
precipitation will be winding down as the cold air moves in, snow
accumulations are not expected to be significant. There is a 35-40%
chance of greater than 4 inches in the upper Cottonwoods but
generally less than 30% chance elsewhere.

As precipitation winds down Sunday morning, cool and much drier
conditions can be expected. However, temperatures quickly trend
warmer by Monday as southwest flow increases again ahead of the next
storm system diving south along the West Coast as a closed low.
Initially, a modest increase in moisture is forecast over southeast
Utah on Monday, aiding a few showers into Tuesday. The slow-churning
storm is then expected to cross Utah Wednesday and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase during this time before cooler
temperatures work their way in once again.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty winds out of the south will persist with
generally VFR conditions at the airport through the remainder of the
morning. There is a chance for scattered showers near the terminal
around 12-14z, though this remains uncertain. Higher confidence
exists with ceilings beginning to drop around 20z, eventually
becoming borderline MVFR as a cold front approaches the airport.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will approach the terminal from 20-
01z when a cold front sweeps through leaving northwest winds in its
wake.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light rain with occasional low
ceilings with mountain obscurations possible will persist across our
southern sites through the morning. Thunderstorm coverage will
continue to increase throughout the day across all sites seeing a
maximum in the afternoon hours. In the afternoon, MVFR ceilings
across most of our sites appears possible with strong to severe
thunderstorms possible as well. Conditions will generally see an
improvement across all sites following 02-04z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a storm
system which will push a strong cold front into the area this
afternoon through tonight and into early Sunday morning. Abundant
moisture remains in place over the area, so showers and
thunderstorms will continue today ahead of the cold front. Across
southern and eastern Utah, widespread rain early this morning will
transition to more scattered showers and thunderstorms for this
afternoon. Meanwhile, northern and central Utah will trend towards
more numerous showers into the afternoon and evening hours ahead of
and along the cold front. As such, northern Utah will be more likely
to see widespread moderate to locally heavy rain, while the heavier
rain across southern Utah will be more spotty. Regardless, wetting
rain chances remain fairly high (at least 40%) throughout the area
through this evening. In addition to heavy rain, some storms today
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and hail.

Cooler air will settle into the area behind the cold front, and
higher elevation areas (generally above 6000-6500 ft) across
northern Utah are expected to see accumulating snow, generally
between 1-4 inches, tonight into Sunday morning. A drying and
warming trend will take place thereafter. Closer to midweek, another
storm system will start to impact the area. Increasing southwest
flow along with a modest increase of moisture will begin by late
Monday ahead of this storm. Precipitation looks to fill in more on
Wednesday and Thursday when this slow-moving storm system finally
moves into Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ113-114-117-120>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Worster

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