060
FXUS65 KSLC 240449
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1049 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southerly flow redeveloping Friday will allow monsoonal moisture
  to briefly fill back in statewide and bring an increased flash
  flood threat, before somewhat drier air returns for the weekend.

- Heat concerns return to Utah starting this Friday, lasting through
  at least Monday as temperatures rise across the region with
  anomalously warm overnight temperatures offering little relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the area will shift eastward for
Friday, allowing a south to southwesterly flow to return to the
area. This will spread moisture back throughout Utah. PWATs this
evening range from 0.8-0.9 inches across northern Utah to 1.1
inches across southern Utah, and will increase to around 1 inch
across the north to 1.3 inches across southwest Utah by late
Friday afternoon. Expect this to bring increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast area for Friday
afternoon and evening, with an increased potential for flash
flooding. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall
continues for portions of southern Utah for Friday.

The flow turns a bit more westerly for the weekend, which will
lead to a decreasing trend in PWATs. Even so, enough moisture will
linger to produce isolated to scattered convection, with an
associated decrease in flash flood potential. Another moisture
surge looks to be in store for the area during the early to middle
portion of next week, before another drying trend towards the end
of week. As such, expect convection coverage to increase and
decrease with the moisture.

In addition to a return to wetter conditions, this pattern
will bring an increase in temperatures especially across northern
Utah Friday into the weekend as the ridge not only shifts but
H5 heights continue to climb as the ridge amplifies. Daytime
highs soar back to the century mark for many locations across the
Wasatch Front, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s
offering very little relief. As such, increasingly widespread
Major HeatRisk emerges through this period, indicating an elevated
threat for heat illness especially for those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Areas where cloud cover and remnant surface
moisture will see the least overnight cooling, and there is
indication that some areas with lows sitting around 80F could
reach Extreme HeatRisk (~20% chance). If outdoors for festivities
this weekend, make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the
shade or air conditioning often.

&&

.AVIATION...
KSLC...Mostly VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Conditions will remain dry and stable through
the overnight before convection develops tomorrow afternoon around
the terminal. There is ~30% chance of convection impacting the
terminal between 19Z-02Z with gusty and erratic winds, frequent
lightning, and brief heavy rain possible. Otherwise, light diurnal
winds will continue.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mostly VFR conditions will
persist for the entire airspace through the period. Convection
across the south is slowly dissipating with mostly dry and stable
conditions through the overnight for all of the terminals.
Convection re-develops tomorrow afternoon with ~30% chance of
terminal impacts from lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and brief
heavy rain. Otherwise, winds will remain light and diurnally driven.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 136 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026...
Moisture has pulled back to the south and east today,
limiting the spatial extent of the showers and thunderstorms
expected. However, terrain will help with initiation across
southern and central Utah, and slow upper level flow will allow
these storms to drift slowly and increase the chances of wetting
rains with the stronger cells. This drying will also increase the
threat for outflow winds, with storms capable of producing erratic
gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and up to 50 mph on Friday, in
addition to the moderate-heavy rain and lightning.

Overall, minimum RH across the area will be a bit drier, reaching
near- critical values during the afternoon across many valleys,
with marginal overnight recoveries (35-50% for those same
valleys). Expect temperatures across northern Utah to run quite a
bit warmer through the weekend and well into next week as the
ridge crests over the region.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     evening for UTZ103>107.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cheng
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Wessler

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity