Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
559 FXUS65 KSLC 250835 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 235 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A weak system passing through the region on Wednesday will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeastern Utah, after which a gradual warming and drying trend is expected through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Relatively quiet weather is in store for most of the area today as a very weak trough crosses our area through the day. The exception is across northeastern Utah, which will likely see isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon given just enough lift from the exiting system. With very dry low levels, these showers will be capable producing gusty outflow winds, with the HREF max suggesting isolated gusts to 40-50 mph at best. These high-based showers may even extend as far west as the southern Wasatch Front and as far south as Castle Dale, though any outflow would likely be much weaker if this were to occur. As more zonal flow moves into the region on Thursday and mid-level heights rise, temperatures will continue to increase, particularly between Wednesday and Thursday afternoons where most areas will see high temperatures increase by 4-8 degrees. This translates to highs reaching the low-90s along the Wasatch Front and most other valleys, and near 100F in St. George. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the forecast area through the upcoming weekend, as ensemble families remain in strong agreement slowly building mid level ridging into the Desert Southwest, with the forecast area within a fairly weak but predominant zonal flow through the weekend. By early next week ensemble guidance continues to be in strong agreement developing a weak trough along the Pacific Coast, which will amplify the mid level ridge downstream across the Interior West. This will result in a warming trend heading into Monday across the forecast area, with the Wasatch Front approaching 100F and St George potentially approaching 110F. Not much change in long range model guidance tonight with respect to the evolution of the upper trough along the California Coast heading toward the middle of next week, which still looks to potentially allow for a southerly fetch allowing monsoon moisture to spread northward into at least southern portions of the forecast area as early as Tuesday. && .AVIATION...KSLC...General southeasterly drainage winds will persist at KSLC this morning, with winds becoming light and variable at times. By 18Z northwesterly winds will be come established and persist through the afternoon & early evening. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light westerly flow will prevail across the region today, with winds at most sites driven by local diurnal trends. VFR conditions will prevail, with the exception of KBCE where smoke from nearly wildfires will reduce visibility into the IFR category through 15Z this morning, and again late tonight after 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...Conditions will trend warmer and drier through at least Friday statewide and likely through the weekend across central/southern Utah. Overnight recoveries will trend poorer, the exception being a slight increase in maximum RH Sunday morning across northern Utah as weak moisture attempts to filter in. Despite the dry air mass, increased daytime heating and subtle lift as a weak storm system exits eastward will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Uinta Mountains and Uinta Basin on Wednesday afternoon. These high-based showers will be capable of gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph at best. Winds will remain fairly light through Thursday night, but will become slightly more enhanced out of the southwest on Friday afternoon. This will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions across southern Utah, though winds are unlikely to reach Red Flag criteria (20-30% chance). Looking ahead, models are trending towards a moisture surge arriving as early as Tuesday, though plenty of forecast uncertainty still remains. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cunningham/Seaman For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity