898
FXUS65 KSLC 272225
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
325 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions persist through Friday afternoon before
a cold and unsettled weather pattern kicks off Saturday through
the extended. While specifics continue to remain somewhat
uncertain, mountain snowfall is expected across northern UT this
weekend with a chance at light valley accumulations Sunday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Key Points:

- Dry, mild conditions persist through Friday afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation return late
Friday night through Sunday featuring high elevation snow and
perhaps a shot at light valley accumulations primarily across
northern UT.

- Following this weekends system, an active upper level pattern
looks to continue with our next chance of precipitation occurring
across northern UT and southwest WY on Tuesday.

- Slightly below to near normal temperatures are expected to develop
Saturday, lasting through at least next Thursday.

Today, an upper ridge over the area continues to retreat south as
incoming shortwave trough moves inland across the Pacific NW
yielding generally westerly flow aloft. Modest upper level moisture
continues to stream into the region resulting in light cirrus
overspreading the region which will continue to increase in coverage
through this evening as more moisture progresses east. Seasonably
warm temperatures continue today keeping conditions mild and
pleasant, though this forecaster is sure that the majority of the
audience would be thankful for more snow than we`ve had up to this
point.

An upper level shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeast from
the Pacific Northwest tomorrow, clearing through the forecast area
by Saturday evening. This is expected to be the first trough to pass
through the area with this weekends wave train, though impacts are
expected to be quite minimal as forcing remains weak due to the
trough deepening well after it passes us to the east. On a more
localized scale, this system will bring light snow accumulations to
higher elevations of the Bear River Range with around 1-5" expected
on Friday. On a larger scale, this system will sweep a dry cold
front across the forecast area bringing daily temperatures to near-
normal or just below normal for the majority of the forecast area.
Additionally, it will also serve to drop snow levels across northern
UT and southwest WY, setting the stage for the second shortwave
trough to impact the region this weekend.

The next trough looks to dive down from the Pacific NW once again,
arriving at the forecast area late Saturday evening to early Sunday
morning. The majority of Saturday should remain dry across the
forecast area, though a few isolated snow showers across higher
terrain can`t be ruled out within a diffluent flow regime ahead of
the incoming shortwave. Come Sunday, snow levels will remain quite
low as a result of Friday`s system ranging from 3500-4500ft along a
north-south gradient across northern UT and southwest WY.

Regarding Sunday, there is high confidence that a shortwave trough
will slide southeast through the Great Basin. However, uncertainty
still exists regarding the east-west extent of the trough and how/if
it will deepen before reaching our area. An open wave would yield
weaker ascent across the forecast area likely resulting in less
storm coverage and weaker precipitation rates from any showers that
do form. The opposite is true with a deeper, more compact trough
solution where stronger ascent would yield increasing storm coverage
with higher precipitation rates. Likewise, solutions that keep the
trough off to our east may result in notably less precipitation
across the area, perhaps little to none at all in some instances.
Solutions with a trough further to our west typically yield
precipitation amounts closer to the higher end of the range of
accumulations across ensemble members. Lastly, ensemble clusters
capture this uncertainty with three different solutions. Roughly 20%
of all members capture a scenario with a deeper western trough which
would favor more widespread activity. The second solution with
around ~60$ of all members keep the wave open, likely resulting in
less widespread activity and reduced precipitation rates. Finally,
the "bust" solution with around ~20% of all ensemble members takes
the system south of us, perhaps forming a cutoff low, which would
likely yield little to no activity across northern UT and shift
everything to southern UT.

This uncertainty is reflected well in DESI with a 25th-75th
percentile spread for snowfall ranging from 3" to 9" across the
Wasatch and 1" to 5" across the Bear River Range. Lastly, given
700mb temperatures ranging from -7C to -10C across northern UT and
the lower snow levels on Sunday, valley accumulations wouldn`t be
entirely out of the question early Sunday morning across northern
UT, though any accumulations are expected to be light at this time.
To sum this up, this remains quite a difficult forecast to iron out
at this time and continues to have at least some "bust" potential.

As we enter the workweek, an upper air pattern for favorable storm
tracks persists and will continually usher in cold air aloft via
northwest flow. Our next shot for precipitation develops late Monday
evening through Wednesday at the latest as another trough is
forecast to dive southeast from the Pacific Northwest. Uncertainty
also remains high with this system as the strength of the trough,
positioning, and timing is questionable, similar to Sundays system.
Details are expected to be ironed out more over the coming days.
Following this system, the pattern continues to remain favorable for
more storms to follow in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through
the night with some high clouds. Northerly winds are expected to
shift to the south between 02Z and 04Z.



.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR
conditions through the evening with some high clouds. Winds will be
generally light and diurnally driven.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Traphagan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity