400
FXUS65 KSLC 170901
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
301 AM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Utah and southwest Wyoming will see continued dry
conditions over the next several days, with temperatures becoming
very hot by the end of the work week. Breezy conditions will also
increase fire danger for the end of the week. A trough will bring
cooler temperatures for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A Pacific trough is
tracking a dry cold front across Utah and southwest Wyoming this
morning. Seeing a few weak echoes on radar, but given the
extremely dry conditions at the surface, little if any of this
precipitation is hitting the ground. By Tuesday afternoon, the
front will be through the area, with a modest drop in temperatures
behind it. Highs today are expected to run 5-7F below values
observed yesterday, generally around 5F above normal for this time
of year.

Winds will also relax behind the system, remaining generally light
through Wednesday. High pressure will start to rebuild, though,
and highs will return to around 10F above seasonal normals by
Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Record-breaking temperatures,
enhanced southwest winds, and very low relative humidity will be the
main story through Thursday. This will be as a ridge to the
southeast strengthens, while a longwave trough approaches British
Columbia. This will result in enhanced southwest flow for much of
the west, including southwest Wyoming and Utah. Gusts much of the
afternoon will range from roughly 20-40 mph, strongest in western
and southern Utah. Minimum relative humidity values will lower into
the single digits and teens, resulting in high fire danger. The set
up will not only be windy and dry, but also warm. At KSLC, the
forecast high of 102F would set a new record for the day. High
temperatures for much of southwest Wyoming and Utah are similar to
KSLC, either near, at, or exceed the daily record. The warmest
conditions locally will be in far southern Utah, with Lake Powell
around 105F and lower Washington County around 110F.

The main difference for Friday with that the trough will approach
the PacNW. That will push the ridge a bit further to the east. Gusts
will be similar to Thursday for many locations, with the biggest
increase throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. There will
be minimal change in relative humidity and slightly cooler
temperatures, with continued high fire danger.

The trough will track into the western U.S. Saturday. Ensembles are
in good agreement on that, but timing uncertainty makes Saturday`s
forecast lower confidence. There is high confidence that dry
conditions will continue. The lower confidence part is that if the
front tracks through early in the day, winds would transition to
northwest and be lighter. That would mitigate fire danger despite
very low relative humidity and dry conditions continuing. The most
likely scenario is that the boundary will push into northern Utah at
some point during the day, with locations south of the boundary by
the afternoon with more gusty southwest winds.

The front will have tracked into southern Utah by early Sunday.
Although dry, it will bring rather strong cold air advection.
Temperatures will lower roughly 25F off the warmest day of the week
Thursday. Valley highs will generally be in the 70s.

The trough will lift northward Monday, but several shortwaves behind
it will likely keep southwest flow in place. Although southwest
winds are not forecast to be as strong as the initial trough, single
digit to teens minimum relative humidity will continue the fire
danger.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Scattered and broken clouds will diminish through
the morning, with clear conditions after 15Z. Light winds will
prevail from the northwest through 15Z, but varying directions are
likely. After 15Z, winds will prevail from the northwest, with gusts
around 20 knots from 19-01Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered and broken clouds
for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah will diminish through the
morning, with clear conditions after 15Z. Winds will be light
through 18-19Z, with northwest gusts around 20-25 knots for
southwest Wyoming and much of Utah from 19-01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A dry cold front will continue to make its way
across Utah today. Behind the front, the area will see
temperatures closer to normal for this time of year, a decrease in
winds, and a slight increase in relative humidity. Winds will
remain generally light Wednesday as the airmass starts to warm.
However, another slow moving Pacific trough will bring breezy
winds to Utah beginning Thursday along with very dry conditions
and hot temperatures. Because of this, areas of critical fire
weather conditions are anticipated Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Wilson

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