171
FXUS65 KSLC 171707
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1107 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...

- A warming trend will continue through the week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday with enhanced
  southwesterly winds coupled with low humidity.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions will largely persist through
mid-week as Utah remains on the western periphery of a broad ridge
across the southern US. This evening, a very weak wave grazing our
area will result in scattered showers across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming, likely persisting through the overnight hours
and leading to periods of squirrelly, breezy winds. Another weak
shortwave trough crossing through MT/ID on Tuesday will draw a bit
more moisture northward into eastern Utah and thus produce
scattered afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing outflow
winds up to 40 mph. Southwesterly flow will also increase
slightly, resulting in locally critical fire weather conditions.
Isolated thunderstorms will redevelop Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons over higher terrain with daytime heating and modest
moisture sticking around.

Following the passage of the shortwave trough, high pressure will
begin to strengthen first overhead, then shift eastward by Friday
with the ridge axis lingering over the Four Corners heading into
the weekend. This is a favorable setup for monsoonal moisture to
be advected northward into Utah, therefore increasing chances for
thunderstorms and flash flooding beginning Friday and extending
likely through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION, Issued 634 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
KSLC, Issued 634 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.
Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven, with northwest
winds developing around 20z. A line of showers moving in late this
evening have a 30% chance to impact the terminal, mainly between 06-
12z, capable of producing gusty and variable winds through this
period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals. Winds remain generally light and diurnally
driven across the airspace. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible across northwest Utah this afternoon, capable of producing
gusty and variable outflow winds to 35 kts. These showers will
develop into a line through the evening, impacting Wasatch Front
terminals late in the evening into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 347 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
A drier airmass across the state today will stifle
development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but a weak
disturbance brushing across northern Utah this evening and
overnight will result in a line of nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms. Dry low levels will support potential for dry
lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow winds with these
storms. Conditions become increasingly hotter and drier through
the remainder of the work week as high pressure strengthens across
the region, with continued critically dry conditions across lower
elevations. Increasing southwesterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday
will result in areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions, mainly for lower elevations across central and
southern Utah. While overall drier conditions prevail through
Friday, lingering mid-level moisture and sufficient instability
from daytime heating will result in daily chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the week. Monsoonal moisture
looks to spread back into the region this weekend, resulting in an
upward trend in humidity, wetting rain chances, and thunderstorm
probability.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cunningham
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity