866
FXUS65 KSLC 111759
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1159 AM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record heat expected through Wednesday.

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in
  portions of Utah through Tuesday given very anomalous heat,
  single digit humidity, and poor overnight recoveries.

- Locally critical fire weather conditions may develop Wednesday
  afternoon and evening as winds increase and very dry and
  anomalously warm conditions are maintained.

- Isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms will bring
  the threat of microbursts to the region Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An expansive area of ridging is currently centered
over Arizona with ridge axis extending northward through the
forecast region. In turn skies are clear to mostly clear, and
temperatures are already quite mild. 700 mb temperatures
associated with the ridge peak around 14C to 15C, driving
anomalous warmth at the surface with forecast daytime highs
through Wednesday generally 15F to 25F above seasonal normal. SLC
will see favorable odds to hit or exceed 90F each day, and St.
George will see a greater than 50% chance to hit 100F Tuesday when
the heat is expected to peak. Temperatures this warm are more
akin to what would be expected for early July, and as such would
anticipate some locations to see records met or broken. While the
night will still offer some relief, those who work outside or
otherwise have strenuous activities planned during the daytime
should be sure to have a way to stay cool, take breaks when
needed, and stay hydrated.

Models have come into fair agreement on the progression of a
trough shifting inland from the PacNW for the middle of the week.
Ahead of this feature, deep south to southwesterly flow will
increase on Wednesday. This will result in breezy conditions
during the day Wednesday with widespread gusts in the 25-40 mph
range. There is around a 40% chance of wind gusts exceeding 45
mph locally in some portions of areas such as the West Desert
region and Castle Country. If winds trend upwards, may need to
consider Wind Advisories in subsequent forecasts. As this feature
approaches and nudges the ridge eastward, it will also help advect
modest amounts of mid level moisture into the region. With strong
heating in the afternoon, some areas of instability will form and
yield some high-based convection. Given the well mixed boundary
layer, this activity will be capable of gusty erratic dry
microburst type winds. They will also be drier in nature, with
minimal chances of true wetting rains from them. Coverage of this
isolated to scattered convection remains primarily over high
terrain and adjacent areas downstream.

The cold front will start to push southward through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. What meager moisture was available
earlier will have largely diminished by the time the front starts
to push through, so anticipate the frontal passage to be dry. The
baroclinic zone is actually fairly pronounced, do expect to see a
fairly marked cooldown following the frontal passage, potentially
accompanied by a brief period of gusty winds right as the front
passes. The cool air associated with the trough will moderate more
substantially further south in Utah, so the overall temperature
decrease will be less notable. Still, across the northern half of
the area expect afternoon highs to fall around 10F to 15F lower
than the previous days, and up to around 5F at areas across
southern Utah.

Models still generally support another trough translating
eastward through the W CONUS over the weekend, though uncertainty
in the exact evolution remains. Around 40% of ensemble members
support more of a dry and grazing type of trough, with a more
muted and brief cooldown. Another 40% have a similarly dry setup,
but a slightly more amplified trough with a bit more of a
cooldown. The final 20% represent the deepest solution, a scenario
which would see the best chances of a stronger cooldown and
modest precipitation chances. The deeper scenario would also offer
the best chance of seeing some cooler air sticking around a bit
into the upcoming work week, but as always will have to watch and
see where things trend as we approach the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds will gradually lighten over the
next hour or so, likely transitioning to northwesterly around ~20-
2030Z. However, this wind shift could occur as late as 22z.
Southeasterly winds will return after 04z, becoming light and
variable between 02-04z. VFR conditions will prevail with mostly
clear skies.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will be largely light
and terrain-driven today and overnight, the exception being westerly
gusts to 20-25kts across southwest WY this afternoon. VFR conditions
will prevail with mostly clear skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong area of high pressure will dominate the
region through Wednesday. This ridge will result in record heat
and very dry conditions. Daytime humidity minimums will fall to
single digits to low teens, and overnight recoveries through
midweek will be minimal.

An approaching system will result in increasing south to
southwesterly winds Wednesday. Widespread gusts of 25-40 mph are
expected to develop through the afternoon and evening. In areas
where fuels are sufficiently dry, this will result in locally
critical fire weather conditions (particularly fire weather zones
495, 496, and 497 below around 8000 feet). Additionally,
increasing mid level moisture will bring the threat of isolated
high-based convection Wednesday afternoon and evening. This
activity is expected to largely be dry in nature, carrying the
threat of lightning, and gusty erratic outflow winds. Coverage of
this activity will be highest on the high terrain.

A dry cold frontal passage will occur Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures across northern Utah will cool around 10-15
degrees, and across southern Utah temperatures will cool up to
around 5 degrees. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will
remain very low, with widespread single digit to low teen values
into the weekend. Overnight recoveries will improve marginally, on
the order of 5-15% wetter than previous days. There is then
potential for another cold frontal passage Saturday or Sunday, but
models continue to diverge on specific details at this time.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ495>497.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity