676
FXUS65 KSLC 162111
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
311 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A broad low pressure system will depart the region
through Thursday night. High pressure will then become dominant
Friday into the weekend, bringing drier and milder conditions.
Another system, likely grazing in nature, then brushes by late
Sunday into Monday.

&&

Key Points:

- A departing Pacific system will maintain unsettled conditions
across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through Thursday night,
bringing low elevation rain showers and snow showers above 7000 ft
or so.

- Cold air will remain across the region through Friday morning.
This may result in a period of freezing conditions in areas where
the growing season has yet to cease, such as portions of west-
central Utah, the western Uinta Basin, and Castle Country.

- A quick moving system, likely grazing in nature, is expected to
slide through the area Sunday evening into early Monday. This will
bring modest precipitation chances to northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming, and bring a return to cool temperatures behind it.

.DISCUSSION...Unsettled weather continues for the northern portion
of the forecast region as a large cutoff low currently centered
over Wyoming continues to slowly depart the region. Across the
north, lingering moisture and support from the low is resulting in
some low elevation rain showers and high elevation (generally
above 7000 ft or so) snow. Anticipate this precipitation will
continue to gradually wind down as the low further departs the
region through the evening hours Thursday. Additionally, cold
temperatures remain with afternoon readings generally around 10 to
15 degrees below climatological normal.

The aforementioned cold temperatures persisting overnight look to
be the remaining source of impactful weather with this system in
regards to freeze potential in locations where the growing season
may still be ongoing. To that end, portions of west-central Utah,
the western Uinta Basin, and Castle Country will be the most
likely to see such conditions, and the Freeze Watch has been
upgraded to a Freeze Warning accordingly. Forecast temperatures if
anything fall a couple of degrees in comparison to Thursday
morning`s lows, so lower elevations that may have been on the edge
will be more likely to see freezing conditions tonight.
Additionally, cloud cover is expected to decrease, supporting more
effective radiational cooling. While confidence is too low to
include in tonight`s headlines, some outlying areas of Utah Valley
(largely from roughly Salem to around Goshen) will drop into the
mid to low 30s. Currently looking at the forecast and models,
would say around a 20-40% chance for a brief period of freezing
conditions. Other than freezing temperatures, the extra moisture
across the north and calmer conditions will result in some
potential for fog development in sheltered valley locations across
the Cache Valley and Wasatch back.

From Friday into the weekend ridging and high pressure will
become a more dominant weather influence. With a corresponding
increase in drier air, precipitation chances will be minimal
through midday Sunday. Additionally, the ridging will help to
impart a warming trend. Afternoon highs Friday will still be
around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, but by Sunday push back
largely to above normal.

The overwhelming majority of model ensemble members continue to
support another system, with timing now favored more in the late
Sunday to early Monday time frame. Models also have continued to
trend towards the scenario where this system is more grazing in
nature, with this supported by around 87% of ensemble members now.
As such, it appears this quick moving system will push a cold
front southward into Utah and Wyoming late Sunday, which will
start to wash out somewhere across central Utah Monday given the
grazing nature to the system. Showers will accompany this front,
but the overall water numbers have come down markedly. NBM 25th
percentile is actually fully dry, with the 75th percentile
carrying around 0.05" to 0.10" for lower northern elevations and
up to around 0.25" for the northern mountains. Snow levels will
drop to around 6000 to 6500 feet behind the front, but given
limited moisture, this isn`t expected to result in much outside
some light accumulations for the mountain short of one of the
outlier solutions verifying. With the cold air pushing in behind
the front Tuesday morning looks to be quite cold, with more
potential for widespread low elevation freeze conditions at some
locations where the growing season has persisted.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will be light and variable through 02Z when
light southeast winds set up. Light southeast winds will last
through around 18Z when winds transition to northwest. Mountain
obscuration will last into the afternoon. Broken clouds in VFR range
will transition to scattered.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Broken clouds will decrease to
scattered throughout southwest Wyoming and much of Utah. Patchy to
locally dense fog will set up in some northern valleys. This will
bring conditions in IFR or LIFR range from roughly 09-15Z. Mountain
obscuration will last much of the day. Throughout southern Utah,
clear conditions are likely. Light winds will be in place throughout.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Lingering precipitation across northern Utah will
come to an end Thursday evening through the night as the broad
low responsible for unsettled weather departs. Behind it high
pressure will build in leading to drying and warming conditions
into the weekend. Deep west to southwesterly flow will then
increase on Sunday ahead of the next system. This system looks to
be more grazing in nature, sending a cold front southward late
Sunday into early Monday. Some showers will likely accompany the
front, though overall forecast water amounts are fairly meager.
Colder air then returns following the passage of the front.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     UTZ114-115-120.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Wilson
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity