254
FXUS65 KSLC 171234
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
634 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...



- A warming trend will continue through the week.

- Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will occur
  across central and southern Utah Tuesday.

- Moisture increases late in the weekend and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1047 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026...
Mostly dry and hot conditions will continue for
most of the upcoming week as the monsoon moisture tap remains
cutoff given a broad ridge draped across the southern plains.
Diurnal convection will remain isolated (<30% chance) each day
with most of this staying confined to the terrain.

A weak shortwave will be passing through Montana on Tuesday. This
will increase southwesterly flow across the region with afternoon
gusts 20-25 mph, and a slight increase in PoPs across far
northeastern Utah and southwestern Wyoming.

The ridge strengthens across the southwest later this week with
highs in the mid to upper 90s across most valley locations on
Thursday and Friday. This ridge will start to advect more moisture
into the area through the weekend which will help to increase
precipitation chances across most of the area with temperatures
remaining warming than normal for this time of year.



&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.
Winds remain generally light and diurnally driven, with northwest
winds developing around 20z. A line of showers moving in late this
evening have a 30% chance to impact the terminal, mainly between 06-
12z, capable of producing gusty and variable winds through this
period.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals. Winds remain generally light and diurnally
driven across the airspace. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible across northwest Utah this afternoon, capable of producing
gusty and variable outflow winds to 35 kts. These showers will
develop into a line through the evening, impacting Wasatch Front
terminals late in the evening into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 347 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026...
A drier airmass across the state today will stifle
development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but a weak
disturbance brushing across northern Utah this evening and
overnight will result in a line of nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms. Dry low levels will support potential for dry
lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow winds with these
storms. Conditions become increasingly hotter and drier through
the remainder of the work week as high pressure strengthens across
the region, with continued critically dry conditions across lower
elevations. Increasing southwesterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday
will result in areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions, mainly for lower elevations across central and
southern Utah. While overall drier conditions prevail through
Friday, lingering mid-level moisture and sufficient instability
from daytime heating will result in daily chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the week. Monsoonal moisture
looks to spread back into the region this weekend, resulting in an
upward trend in humidity, wetting rain chances, and thunderstorm
probability.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity