556
FXUS65 KSLC 160959
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
359 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue Monday.
A dry cold front Monday night into Tuesday will bring decreasing
winds and temperatures and a small increase in relative humidity.
High pressure will build for the latter half of the week, bringing
potentially dangerous heat for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...High pressure remains
centered over the Desert Southwest this morning with a Pacific
trough moving onshore along the California coast. Conditions
remain dry and unseasonably warm over Utah and southwest Wyoming,
with winds beginning to increase as the trough continues east.
Winds will become breezy this afternoon, with some gusts up to 35
mph. Given the hot and very dry airmass, this will result in some
areas of critical fire weather conditions where fuels are dry.

The trough is on track to cross the forecast area tonight into
Tuesday. The system itself looks dry, so little to no
precipitation is anticipated. The primary impact will be on
temperatures, with maxes decreasing to within 5F of seasonal
normals for Tuesday. Winds will also decrease behind the front
with a modest increase in relative humidity.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...High pressure to the
southeast will retrograde to off the Pacific coast near the coast of
southern California and Baja California with a trough and associated
cold front tracking through Tuesday. This will result in Wednesday
being much less windy than earlier in the week. Flow will be zonal
to southwest as the ridge tracks east Wednesday to near the Arizona
and New Mexico border.

The ridge to the southeast will strengthen Thursday, while a
longwave trough will approach the PacNW. This will result in enhanced
southwest flow for much of the western U.S. For southwest Wyoming
and Utah, this set up, with minimum relative humidity into the
single digits and teens, will bring high fire danger. In addition,
forecast temperatures are in record territory for the date for much
of southwest Wyoming and Utah. The National Blend of Models 25th-
75th percentile for high temperature at KSLC is 104-106F.
Probabilistic data suggests roughly a 90% chance that the date`s
record of 101F will be exceeded. Forecast highs for the urban
corridor of northern Utah generally range from 100-102F, with the
warmest conditions up to 110F throughout lower Washington County.

Ensembles are in good agreement on the track of the aforementioned
longwave trough, with it to track to near the coast later Friday.
That will result in similar conditions through Friday. The ridge to
the southeast will track slightly east, with slightly cooler
temperatures around 5F off of Thursday. Relative humidity will
remain very low and winds will increase.

The longwave trough will approach from the northwest Saturday. The
biggest uncertainty is with timing. It is likely that at least
southern Utah will continue with much warmer than normal, dry
conditions with gusty southwest winds. Depending on timing of the
cold front, gusty soutwest winds could continue for southwest
Wyoming and much of Utah.

There is high confidence that the longwave trough and associated
cold front will track through southwest Wyoming and most of Utah by
the end of the weekend. It will be a dry storm system, but bring
strong cold air advection. Highs will go from the 90s for most
valleys Friday and Saturday to the 70s Sunday. The cooler conditions
will bring a slight increase in relative humidity. Northwest winds
behind the front will be much lighter than the southwest winds ahead
of it from Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds will last through around
17Z when winds transition to northwest. Clouds will increase, with
broken clouds prevailing by 18Z. Northwest winds will gust around 20
knots from 20-01Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light winds, generally from
the southeast to southwest, will prevail through around 15Z. Winds
will increase late morning into the afternoon. Gusts will be
strongest in southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah, peaking in excess
30 knots. Broken clouds will build into southwest Wyoming and much
of Utah by 18Z, with mostly clear conditions for southern Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions will continue over Utah today
under the influence of high pressure centered over southern New
Mexico. As a Pacific trough moves onshore along the California
coast today, winds will become breezy. This will combine with the
hot and very dry conditions to produce areas of critical fire
weather conditions, primarily focused over the southern half of
the state. The trough will bring a dry cold front across the area
Monday night into Tuesday. This will result in less hot
temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday with a decrease in winds and a
slight increase in relative humidity. High pressure will return
beginning Thursday, bringing a return of hot, dry, and
increasingly breezy conditions that could result in areas of
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for
     UTZ482-489-492>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity