430
FXUS65 KSLC 310020
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
619 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1023 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026...


- Conditions remain mostly dry across the area through the weekend
  and into next week.

- Dangerous heat develops across the entire forecast area this
  weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure settles in bringing
  an increased risk for heat related illness.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for portions
  of Utah Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 135 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026...
Conditions are trending drier and hotter as a ridge
currently centered over New Mexico continues to march toward the
west. It will also strengthen and elongate as it treks to the
west. This will keep the drying trend going as it cuts off the
monsoon moisture tap with a weak westerly flow developing.
Additionally, temperatures will approach near record territory for
portions of the CWA. 700mb temperatures peak on Saturday with the
50th percentile ~20C and the 75th percentile ~21C. When we
recorded our all-time record high of 109F a few weeks ago our
700mb temp also broke the all-time high of 21C. Our upper level
temperatures will be close to that, but given weaker southerly
flow we should go to a northerly lake-breeze sooner than the day
we hit 109F.

Our forecast high on Saturday will likely be in the 103-106
range. 110F is the current forecast for St. George. Overnight
recoveries will also be warm, however the drier airmass should at
least allow temperatures to drop into the 70s, rather than the 80s
we saw this past week when cloud cover and moisture kept
overnight lows well into the 80s. Regardless, the heat risk will
be elevated this week. Smoke from nearby wildfires will need to be
monitored as the weekend progresses to see if it influences the
temperatures, but winds favor less smoke given the
southerly/westerly orientation and most fire are to our northwest.

A trough passing by to our north late this weekend will bring a
weak cold front through the area with a dip in temperatures closer
to normal with the most noticeable drop across northern Utah. As
this trough approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten with
southwesterly flow increasing. This combined with low RH will
elevate the critical fire weather conditions, particularly across
central and eastern Utah where winds are expected to be strongest
(25-35 mph gusts).

Moisture will slowly start to creep back into southern Utah
towards the end of next week as the ridge gradually tracks back to
the east, but guidance is showing a variance of several days so
exact timing remains uncertain.



&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds will continue at the terminal
through the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail with
elevated wildfire smoke producing hazy skies, but no surface VIS
reductions.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will remain light and
terrain-driven during the valid TAF period. VFR conditions will
prevail with elevated wildfire smoke producing hazy skies but no
surface VIS reductions.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER, Issued 135 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026...
High pressure shifts further west, strengthens, and elongates
across the west. This will bring more of a westerly flow to the
area which will act to cut off the monsoon moisture tap.
Additionally, hot and potentially record-breaking temperatures
will settle into the area this weekend. Some lingering moisture
trapped under the high pressure will keep some very isolated
chances of diurnal weak storms in the forecast for the next couple
of days, but these will primarily be confined to the higher
terrain.

A weak cold front will graze northern Utah on Monday. As it
approaches, southwesterly winds will strengthen across the area on
Sunday and Monday. These winds will combine with RH in the single
digits to create elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions with poor overnight recoveries struggling to get into
the 20%+ range. Current forecasts show central and eastern Utah as
having the greatest probabilities of these critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ101-
     114>116-120>122.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ102-104>106.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Friday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for
     UTZ123-124-128>131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mahan
AVIATION...Kruse
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

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