685
FXUS65 KSLC 121053
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
452 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and drier condition can be expected today
before temperatures trend warmer through the early part of the week.
The next storm system will impact the area during the middle part of
the week, with cooler temperatures prevailing through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough will continue to move east out of Utah
this morning. The associated strong cold front is currently analyzed
across southeast Utah and will continue to shift southeast. A band
of showers continue early this morning near the frontal boundary
(along with isolated showers across the northern Utah mountains),
otherwise a cooler, drier, and more stable airmass will settle into
the area today. Latest analysis shows PWATs having decreased to
between 0.3-0.5 inches across northwest Utah and 0.6-0.8 inches
across southeast Utah. Some gusty postfrontal winds of 30+ mph are
noted currently across southeast Utah, but these will also trend
downward through the morning hours. Essentially, things are shaping
up for a quiet, if a bit cool, day today. Afternoon high
temperatures today will be between 8-14 degrees below normal for
this time of year.

The break in the weather is not expected to persist, as the next
storm system is already noted over over the BritCol coast. This
storm will pinch off into a closed low before diving south along the
west Coast tonight through tomorrow. Southerly winds will increase
again over Utah tomorrow and even further on Tuesday downstream of
this deepening low. The winds will enhance mixing while bringing
warmer temperatures back to the area. There is a 60% chance of
localized wind gusts to 45 mph or greater over western Utah Tuesday
afternoon, otherwise chances remain low (generally less than 30%)
elsewhere.

Moisture will also increase by late Monday afternoon and into
Tuesday. Once again, this moisture will have tropical origins, but
the bulk of it will end up south of Utah. PWATs over eastern Utah
are expected to increase to around 0.6-0.7 inches by late Monday.
This is still between 150-200% of normal for this time of year. With
this moisture, and aided by a jet streak punching into Utah, expect
showers to spread in from the south Monday afternoon through Monday
night (with some potential for locally moderate rain), then linger
across the north into Tuesday. By Wednesday, the storm system will
move inland and begin to cross into Utah which will bring more
widespread precipitation along with a return to cooler weather
through Thursday. Heading into the weekend, model consensus has a
mean ridge strengthening over the West Coast which will bring drier
conditions once again.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will continue weakening through the
morning, gradually shifting from ESE to SE. A wind shift to
northwesterly is expected around 19z with VFR conditions persisting
through the remainder of the TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Rain showers with borderline
IFR ceilings have been observed near KHCR this morning with the
majority of our other sites remaining dry. Winds across all sites
will generally follow diurnal flow patterns this afternoon in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front with VFR conditions persisting.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier and cooler air will spread into the area today
in the wake of the storm system and associated cold front which
crossed northern and western Utah overnight and which is over
southeast Utah early this morning. Humidities today will decrease as
skies continue to clear through the day. However, the break in the
weather will be short-lived as the next storm system will be diving
south along the West Coast later today. This storm will bring
increasingly strong southerly flow to the area Monday through
Tuesday. With good mixing, however, temperatures will also trend
warmer during this time. Moisture will increase Monday, especially
across eastern Utah. This will bring the next round of showers to
the area Monday afternoon through Monday night, with some showers
lingering over the north into Tuesday. By Wednesday, the storm
system is expected to begin slowly crossing Utah. More widespread
showers along with cooler temperatures can be expected into Thursday
as a result. Thereafter, high pressure looks to start building
building into the area for the end of the week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/Worster

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