460
FNUS75 KSLC 162020
FWSSLC

Spot Forecast for Trial Lake Dam Safety Incident 25...USBR
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
220 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Lower level moisture will begin increasing over the western Uintas
starting late tomorrow, with the moisture lingering through at
least Saturday afternoon. While a majority of the moisture in
place right now is well overhead, isolated heavy rainfall may
still be possible, however, most storms are expected to form to
the east of Trial Lake. With the peak in moisture not arriving
until around Friday morning, the threat of heavy rainfall will be
generally low until then. As a worst case scenario (less than 10%
chance), around 0.15 inches of rainfall may occur through the rest
of Wednesday, as well as on Thursday. The potential rainfall
amounts increase by about double by Friday and Saturday afternoon,
with worst case scenarios (again... around a 10% chance or less)
around 0.3 inches of rainfall. This will be heavily dependent on
whether or not showers actually develop near Trial Lake, and how
strong they become. Just like today, storms will want to form to
the east of Trial Lake and move off to the east.

Friday and Saturday will bring limited potential for slow moving
storms producing heavy rainfall, so brief heavy rainfall producing
a quick hit of less than 0.2 inches of rainfall appears to be
the most likely situation when the moisture is maximized over
the western Uintas. By Sunday, moisture begins to wane as drier
air works in from the west.

Big picture, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be in
the area from now through at least Saturday, but have a generally
low probability of moving over Trial Lake.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent cloud cover).
                    Patchy smoke early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon, then slight chance of dry
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Precip. Amount......0.0-0.1 inches
Chance of lightning.25 percent.
Max temperature.....70-72.
Min humidity........26-28 percent.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 11-14 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent cloud cover).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Precip. Amount......0 inches
Chance of lightning.1 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........44-46 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 6-13 mph becoming south 6-9 mph
                    after 3 am.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (0-10 percent cloud cover) then
                    becoming partly cloudy (50-60 percent cloud
                    cover). Patchy smoke in the late morning and
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon. Slight chance of dry
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Precip. Amount......0.0-0.05 inches
Chance of lightning.30 percent.
Max temperature.....71-73.
Min humidity........27-29 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6-11 mph becoming northwest
                    9-11 mph late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Webber
Requested by...Jeff Beaty
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2518128.0/SLC
.DELDT 07/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jbeaty@usbr.gov