602
FXUS01 KWBC 182034
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 19 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026

..There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes and
Northern Rockies on Friday and the Northern Rockies and Northern
High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi
Valley and Southern New England on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday...

Upper-level energy will help produce showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great
Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday
morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition,
many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Moving into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain over parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. Heavy rain will also develop over
parts of Southern New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southern New England on Sunday as well. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

In addition, an upper-level low over the Northern Rockies will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of
the Northern Rockies on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern Rockies on Friday into Saturday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop
over parts of the Northern High Plains on Saturday. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern Rockies on Saturday into Sunday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, on Saturday, showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






$$