120
FXUS01 KWBC 220802
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025

...Flooding rains are expected to pass south of California today;
flash flooding threat will resume over the Southern Plains Sunday
into Monday...

...One more day of record warmth for the South and Southeast
today...

An unusually strong occluded cyclone centered off the northern
coast of Baja California this morning will be the impetus for a
round of inclement weather across the Southwest this weekend and
then across the southern Plains Sunday night into Monday.  Light
to moderate rain ahead of the cyclone was moving into the Desert
Southwest early this morning.  Nevertheless, the bulk of the heavy
rainfall is forecast to pass south of California today as the
cyclone center makes landfall over Baja California Peninsula.  By
later today into tonight, bands of moderate to locally rain with
embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop and sweep across
Arizona ahead of the weakening cyclone, before pushing into New
Mexico early on Sunday.  Meanwhile, wet snow can be expected to
reach into the higher elevations of northern New Mexico and
south-central Colorado on Sunday.

As the system continues pushing eastward, precipitation chances
will expand into the central and southern Plains Sunday and Sunday
night.  Warm and moist southerly flow returning from the Gulf will
interact with upper-level divergence on the southern edge of a jet
stream to create favorable conditions for development of
widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Some thunderstorms may be
strong to severe, and heavy rain will likely result in scattered
instances of flash flooding across portions of Central and North
Texas as well as central and southern Oklahoma.  Some flash floods
may lead to significant impacts, and those in the southern Plains
should remain weather aware through the weekend and into Monday.
On the backside of the low pressure system, mixed wintry
precipitation and snow appears to linger across the higher terrain
in central Colorado Sunday night before tapering off early on
Monday.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms early this morning across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys are expected to taper off during
the day today as an elongated low pressure system tracks across.
The central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic will need to wait
until this afternoon for these showers and embedded thunderstorms
to move off the East Coast together with the low pressure system.
But the trailing portion of the front is expected to stall over
the Florida peninsula with isolated showers through the end of the
weekend.

Across the northern tier, a progressive low pressure system should
push a cold front across the north-Central and northeastern U.S.
through the weekend.  The frontal passage will be mostly dry, but
some precipitation will be possible for the Great Lakes and
northern New England.  Precipitation will also return to the
Northwest on Sunday as a Pacific system gradually pushes onshore.
Precipitation should fall as rain along the coast and in the
valleys while a wintry mix or snow can be expected in the
mountains.

In terms of temperatures, most of the Lower 48 will see above
average temperatures through this weekend.  The exception to this
will be across the Southwest where cloud cover and precipitation
will keep temperatures below average.  Slightly below average
temperatures will also be possible for the Northeast and New
England in the wake of a frontal passage Saturday into Sunday.
One more day of record warmth is forecast for the South and
Southeast today as high temperatures soar into the 80s along with
warm lows in the 60s.


Kong/Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$