311
FXUS01 KWBC 310701
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 31 2025 - 12Z Tue Sep 02 2025

...Stormy and unsettled weather continues from parts of the
central Plains to New Mexico, Texas and along the immediate Gulf
Coast...

...Dry conditions with seasonal to below-average temperatures
remaining in place across much of the eastern U.S. through the
holiday weekend...

...Heat builds across the western U.S. after a reprieve from
recent monsoonal rains...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching from southern
Texas to along the immediate Gulf Coast will remain the focus for
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
long holiday weekend. A very moist air mass in place combined with
the potential for storms to repeatedly develop and train along the
stalled front raises concerns for slower moving downpours that can
lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. This
will especially be the case from southern New Mexico to eastern
Texas today, and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2/4)
remains in effect to highlight this potential. By Monday, this
threat should begin to diminish as the front settles farther south
and drier air moves into the region.

Farther north, a slow-moving disturbance will continue to trigger
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the central Plains
eastward into the mid to lower Missouri Valley through Monday. Due
to its slow movement and the potential for additional rounds of
rain over the same areas, there is an ongoing concern for isolated
to scattered flash flooding. Cloud cover and widespread rain will
also help suppress daytime temperatures the next couple of days,
which are expected to remain 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

Across the eastern third of the U.S. north of Florida, high
pressure will remain in control through early next week. Other
than a few spotty showers and storms along the spine of the
central and southern Appalachians, mainly dry weather will be the
rule. Temperatures will continue to run near to below normal with
highs ranging from the 60s and 70s north to the 70s and 80s south.
Overnight lows will mostly be in the 40s and 50s.

In contrast to the widespread near to below normal temperatures
east of the Rockies, temperatures across the western U.S. will
continue to trend warmer the next few days as an upper-level ridge
builds overhead. Temperatures are expected to increase to
well-above normal across parts of the interior Northwest, with
daytime highs approaching or exceeding record values across parts
of eastern Washington and northern Idaho by Monday. Outside of
parts of the Southwest - where the chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms will increase early in the week - most of the West
will remain dry through the period.

Miller/Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$