399
FXUS01 KWBC 111957
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 12 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 14 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southwest and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday and the Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central
Plains on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Northern/Central Plains and then northwestward to the Northern
Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Upper
Mississippi Valley, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday into Saturday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, the showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. The SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
develop over parts of the Southwest on Friday into Saturday
morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Friday into
Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most
vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will continue
over parts of the Southwest into the Central Rockies through
Sunday during the afternoon into the late evening.

Moreover, a front over the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley on
Friday evening will slowly move northward into northern New
England by Sunday evening. The boundary will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley
Friday evening, then move into parts of the Northeast Saturday
into Sunday.

The lifting front will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over two areas. The first will be over parts of the
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and the second over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday into Sunday morning.
 The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Southern Mid-Atlantic southward to Florida and westward to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday evening. On
Saturday morning, rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and become showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, extending southward to Florida and
along the Gulf Coast through Sunday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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