117
FXUS01 KWBC 240622
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...Hazardous record-breaking heat continues across the
south-central U.S. into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and
Southeast through Tuesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S.
will continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley, and gradually into the Southwest by
mid-week. Daytime highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the
southern Plains, while portions of the Southwest can reach up to
115. Some areas are even expected to break dozens of high/low
daily temperatures through the week. With the combination of well
above normal temperatures and the high humidity, heat indices will
remain elevated. Additionally, the warm overnight temperatures
will provide limited recovery, leading to widespread Major to
Extreme HeatRisk through the week. See the latest Key Messages
linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for
monsoonal moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and
Intermountain West/Rockies. Unstable airmass will interact with
shortwave energy and the frontal boundary, leading to scattered
thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
central Rockies. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and flash flooding through
Tuesday, especially over areas that have sufficient instability.
Further north, a progressive westerly flow will persist across the
northern Rockies/Plains and upper Midwest. As the frontal boundary
moves eastward, it will interact with warm unstable air,
supporting repeated organized showers and thunderstorms across the
Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and
severe thunderstorms will be possible with stronger storms through
Tuesday, especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, the surface low and associated frontal boundary will
continue to exit eastward from the Northeast, but shortwave
troughs will continue to produce lingering showers and
thunderstorms through Monday across the Lower Great Lakes and New
England. Further south, the trailing frontal boundary will drape
across the Southeast into the southern Plains, bringing chances
for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. As the boundary
interacts with warm moist air and sufficient instability,
organized storm cells may develop. The strongest storms may
produce damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, and localized flash
flooding/excessive rainfall, especially along the Gulf Coast,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast Coast.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




$$