010
FXUS01 KWBC 182001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 19 2025 - 00Z Mon Jul 21 2025

...Heightened flash flooding risk across portions of the Great
Basin, Southwest, Northern/Central Plains, Midwest,
Central/Southern Appalachians, Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic this
weekend...

...Severe weather potential over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this weekend...

...Major to Extreme HeatRisk expands across the Southeast and
Mississippi Valley...


A very active week of weather continues for much of the country
this weekend. A trough-y pattern across the northern stream and
shortwaves circling the periphery of an upper ridge stationed over
the Southeast will interact with instability and relatively
substantial moisture to produce scattered thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall in many areas over the next couple of days. There are
several regions with slight risks (at least 15% chance) of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding through tonight.
Those areas include portions of the Great Basin, Southwest,
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Central Gulf Coast. There`s a
targeted moderate risk (at least 40% chance) of excessive rainfall
over portions of the Shenandoah Valley, Potomac Highlands and
Virginia Piedmont, where soils are already very moist, meaning
that additional rain will likely immediately runoff. Scattered to
isolated storms capable of producing instances of flash flooding
in the Central Gulf Coast should wrap up early this evening. The
Storm Prediction Center issued slight risks (level 2/5) for parts
of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as another area over central-southern Virginia
into North Carolina tonight. An MCS is expected to produce large
hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes across the corn belt
late tonight, while scattered damaging winds are expected in
Virginia and North Carolina early this evening.

The threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall focus
along and ahead of a low pressure system extending from the
Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. The continued
abundance of moisture and instability along a lifting mechanism
such as a moving surface front will generate rounds of
thunderstorms with areas affected by recent rainfall especially
susceptible to flash flooding. A broad slight risk area of
excessive rainfall is in place due to continued uncertainty on
where storms will pop up prior to the arrival of tonight`s corn
belt MCS. A broad slight risk of severe thunderstorms is also in
effect from the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley on
Saturday where areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible.
Supercells are expected to develop along a stalled front over
portions of the Front Range/Central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible from
these storms.

A retrograding ridge over the Southeast/Gulf will promote warm and
humid conditions across the southern U.S. this weekend. There is
high confidence in heat reaching levels that would affect anyone
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Long duration
heat waves that last multiple days in a row, with little to no
overnight relief and high humidity levels, often pose a greater
danger. That is expected with this heat wave, especially over the
Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, and Mid-South region.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$