Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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262 FXUS01 KWBC 300748 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 247 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025 ...As one winter storm ends for the Midwest/Great Lakes, another potential storm will follow quickly for New England and the Mid-Atlantic... ...Chilly temperatures continue across much of the eastern and central U.S. in a winter-like pattern... An active, winter-like pattern will continue over the next couple days featuring winter storms bringing impactful winter weather and chilly temperatures for much of the country. An upper-wave and accompanying surface low pressure/frontal system bringing heavy snow to the region yesterday (Saturday) and into the early morning hours today (Sunday) will begin to move into southeastern Canada during the day with snow tapering off across the region. Snowfall will linger longest for favorable lake-effect zones downwind of the Great Lakes with a few more inches of accumulations expected. Some precipitation will also spread into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, with rain showers closer to the coast and a wintry mix/snow inland, though any accumulations should remain limited to higher elevations of interior New England. Additional showers and some thunderstorms are also expected along the trailing cold front southwest through the Appalachians/Tennessee Valley to the central and western Gulf Coast, as well as along the coastal Southeast, with mostly light to moderate rainfall expected. To the west, another upper-wave currently dropping through the Great Basin/Rockies will bring some locally heavy mountain snow to the Wasatch in Utah and Rockies in Colorado today, with some lighter snow showers in the surrounding lower elevations. Then, as this wave moves quickly eastward, it will encourage moist return flow over the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley with an expanding area of precipitation Monday. Showers/thunderstorms will focus along the Gulf Coast and inland across eastern Texas into the Southeast, with a transition into a wintry mix and then snow further north over the central Plains and eastward into the Midwest where colder air will be in place. An expanding swath of light to moderate accumulating snow is expected later Monday and into the overnight hours from central Kansas east through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes. Some favorable lake-effect areas could see enhanced locally heavier snowfall. The upper-wave will also help to deepen/organize an area of low pressure along the frontal boundary lingering on the Gulf Coast, expected to lift northeastward along the East Coast overnight Monday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the Southeast, with some locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding possible. Further north, the combination of the approaching upper-wave and coastal low lifting northward will help to enhance wintry precipitation chances late Monday and into the day Tuesday for New England southwest through the interior Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Accumulating snow will be possible especially inland from the coast for New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, with the potential for icing southwest along the central/southern Appalachians. The timing, track, and strength of this potential winter storm remain uncertain so keeping up-to-date with the latest forecast is recommended. Elsewhere, another upper-wave/frontal system will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies later Monday and into the overnight hours, bringing lower elevation/coastal rain and interior/higher elevation snow chances. Temperature-wise, much of the eastern/central U.S. will remain well below average and chilly with broad upper-toughing in place and repeated cold frontal passages. The latest cold front has brought the coldest air of the season so far to the central/southern Plains east to the Mid-South, with highs Sunday and Monday mainly in the 20s to 40s. Further north, highs across the northern Plains into the Midwest will mainly be in the teens and 20s. Conditions will be downright frigid along the northern tier, with lows around 0 and wind chills below 0. To the east, highs will be in the 30s and 40s for New England and the Mid-Atlantic with 40s and 50s into the Southeast. The only areas to see some reprieve from the cold will be along the Gulf Coast and southeast Atlantic Coast as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s on the south side of the lingering frontal boundary. Conditions will be around or a bit above average in the West, with 40s for the interior, 50s and 60s along the West Coast, and 60s and 70s into the Desert Southwest. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$