640
FXUS01 KWBC 060748
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 06 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 08 2025

...Heavy rain and flooding potential across parts of the Mid-South
and Ohio Valley...

...Above average warmth for the Great Lakes and Northeast today
with possible record high temperatures in New England...

A strong cold front will stretch across the Midwest to southern
Plains ahead of an upper-level trough, and will slowly march
eastward over the next couple of days. Above average moisture from
the Gulf is expected to stream northward and pool near the front,
providing a focus for heavy rainfall across parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Lower Ohio Valley today into
tonight. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall causing
scattered flash flooding is in place for these areas. As the front
moves, the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding should shift
slightly eastward on Tuesday. The greatest threat will cover
Kentucky in particular, with another Slight Risk in place. Areas
of 3 to 5 inches of rain are possible. Some rain is forecast to
stretch northward into the Great Lakes today and Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, but not quite as heavy as farther south.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms could continue across the
central Gulf Coast today and Florida over the next couple of days,
with some localized flash flooding particularly in urban areas.
Meanwhile, today and especially by Tuesday, scattered
thunderstorms could form over New Mexico and lead to isolated
flash flooding particularly in sensitive areas like burn scars.

The potent cold front will be a dividing line between cooler than
average temperatures to its west and warmer than average
temperatures to its east. Unseasonably warm temperatures with
highs in the 80s will be widespread today across portions of the
Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast, and a handful of
record highs could be tied/set particularly in New England. By
Tuesday the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes should cool closer to
normal behind the front, but the Northeast is likely to remain
warm. Meanwhile, below normal temperatures (especially for highs)
are likely across the Intermountain West, and the coolest
anomalies of 15 to 25 degrees below normal are forecast for the
central High Plains, where highs are forecast to only reach the
50s. On Tuesday the cool air should dive south a bit into the
south-central Plains, yielding highs in the 60s. Chilly low
temperatures have have prompted Freeze Watches/Warnings and Frost
Advisories this morning scattered through the Intermountain West
and north-central U.S., and freezing temperatures could remain a
concern into Tuesday morning for parts of Wyoming into
northwestern Colorado.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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