093
FXUS01 KWBC 251745
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 00Z Fri Nov 28 2025

...Rain changing to locally heavy snow under blustery and windy
conditions expected to spread from west to east across the
northern tier states for the next couple of days...

...Severe weather with possible localized flash flooding threats
moving through the Deep South early today before reaching the
interior Southeast tonight...

...Well above average temperatures across much of the
central/eastern U.S. will give way to much colder and more windy
conditions heading into Thanksgiving Day...

The deepening upper-level trough continues to push the surface low
eastward from the Northern Plains. As the moisture interact with
the colder polar air, chances for a transition from rain to a
wintry mix increases, especially over higher terrain. Therefore,
moderate to heavy snow is possible over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest today into Tuesday, as well as stronger gusty winds.
The system is expected to strengthen and expand in size as it
begins to interact with another frontal system and will gradually
push eastward by Wednesday. This will bring more snow chances for
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday. Snowfall amounts
will progressively increase from west to east across the northern
Plains with highest totals of over a foot likely downwind from the
Snow Belt of Lake Superior. Otherwise, expect chances for rain and
possible embedded thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest and other
parts of the Great lakes ahead of the cold front through Wednesday
night.

A frontal system continues to move southeastward towards the Deep
South/Gulf Coast region. Moisture from the Gulf continues to pull
northward, which in combination with the cold front, brings higher
chances for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms today into
Wednesday. With warming surface temperatures, sufficient amount of
low-level shear, and ongoing convection, Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
thunderstorms through tonight for east-central Mississippi across
central Alabama. As the system advances toward the East Coast, a
period of enhanced rainfall can be expected to move through the
central Appalachians later today followed by the interior
Mid-Atlantic this evening.  The rain will then move across New
England through tonight. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will
be moving through the remainder of the East Coast and the
Southeast through Wednesday afternoon associated with the trailing
cold front.  By Thanksgiving morning, the cold front will move off
coast, bringing some drier conditions over Central and Eastern
U.S.

Much of the central and eastern U.S. will be warmer than normal
today before the arrival of the polar air mass. Meanwhile, the
western U.S. will generally be milder than normal following a
brief cool down across the Northwest. Thursday will see a more
notable departure from normal over the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes, where temperatures will drop 5-15 degrees below normal.

Moisture from the next system is scheduled to reach the Pacific
Northwest today with a good dose of rain into tonight for the
lower elevations, while snow will engulf the Cascades, then
reaching into the northern Rockies overnight into Wednesday
morning.  Another system in its wake will begin to spread rain
from northern Oregon on Wednesday and into much of Oregon by
Thanksgiving morning with wet snow along the Cascades.

Oudit/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$