939
FXUS01 KWBC 300600
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 30 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 01 2026

...Flash flooding risk in New England through Thursday; while
flash flooding risk continues across Four Corners and Southeast
through Friday...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the
Plains into the Midwest through Friday...

...Dangerous heat continues for the South through Saturday and
expands into the Southwest, Intermountain West, and northern High
Plains late this week into this weekend...


A series of shortwave troughs will transverse the northern tier of
CONUS, pushing a surface cold front into the Pacific Northwest
into the Upper Midwest through Thursday. The trailing frontal
boundary associated with the low pressure system over the
Northeast will drape across the central Plains into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, while a surface trough will
develop across the Plains. The frontal zone will interact with
moist and unstable air mass, serving as a primary focus for
multiple round of organized convection. Training and convective
clustering may produce heavy rainfall/downpours. Therefore, a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is in place across
portions of the Mid to Lower Missouri/Mississippi Valley. Strong
instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will also support
scattered severe thunderstorms, as there is a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms across portions of central and
northern Plains, while a Marginal Risk highlights a broader areas
within the central and northern Plains.

On Friday, the surface low over Mid-Mississippi Valley strengthens
as it pushes northeastward, while the cold front over the Northern
Plains move southeastward into the Great Lakes and the surface
trough pushes eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Heavy downpour
and high rainfall rates will be possible as the boundary interacts
greater instability. Therefore, the excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorm threat will slightly shift eastward into the Upper
Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The low pressure system over the Northeast will continue to slowly
exit offshore through Thursday, but lingering moisture will
produce additional rainfall through Thursday that may lead to
isolated flash flooding, especially over areas where soils are
saturated from previous rainfall. Therefore, a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) of excessive rainfall remains in place over New
England.

The southern portion of the trailing frontal over the Southeast
will become stationary and will pool warm moisture along the
front. Combined with strong instability, showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the region through Friday. There is a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms that will be capable of
producing damaging winds across portions of the Southeast through
Thursday. Additionally, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall across the Southeast into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley through Friday.

Monsoonal moisture will remain entrenched across the Four Corners
region, supporting another daily cycle of scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Friday. Although,
storm coverage and intensity has decreased, slow storm motions and
abundant moisture will continue to pose a threat of localized
flash flooding, particularly over burn scars, slot canyons, dry
washes, and vulnerable terrain. Therefore, a Marginal Risk (level
1/4) of excessive rainfall is in place for portions of the Four
Corners region through Saturday. Additionally, there is a Marginal
Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms across portions of
Colorado and New Mexico through Friday.

The upper ridging across southern U.S. continues to bring above
normal temperatures through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures are expected to reach mid-to-upper 90s across the
region, with highs into the low 100s for portions of the southern
Plains. High temperatures combined with high humidity will bring
heat indices up to 105 to 115 degrees, resulting in widespread
Major, with isolated Extreme HeatRisk levels that will be
hazardous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration.
Dangerous heat will expand into the Southwest and portions of the
Intermountain West Thursday into Friday, and into the northern
High Plains by Saturday bringing widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk values across these regions.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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