708
FXUS01 KWBC 241955
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 25 2024 - 00Z Thu Jun 27 2024

...Heat wave focus shifts to the Southeast, Mid-South, and
central/southern Plains into midweek...

...Severe storms and flash flooding possible for portions of the
Upper Midwest into Monday night, shifting a bit south Tuesday...

...Monsoon-like conditions persist for the Southwest/Four Corners
Region...


A broad upper-level ridge building over the west-central U.S. will
continue to produce potentially hazardous heat over the next few
days. Forecast high temperatures will continue to soar into the
upper 90s across much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley and
into southeastern parts of the Lower 48, with low 100s possible
over the central Plains. When combined with the humidity, heat
index values may reach as high as 110, prompting Heat Advisories
and some embedded Excessive Heat Warnings. Meanwhile, low
temperatures will mostly remain in the mid- to upper 70s, bringing
little relief from the heat overnight. The arrival of this more
intense heat early in the Summer season leads to a higher level of
heat-related stress, especially for those outdoors and without
reliable air conditioning available. While the north-central U.S.
can expect some relief from the heat Tuesday and especially
Wednesday behind a cold front, the Southern Plains to Mid-South to
Southeast will maintain potentially dangerously hot conditions
through the period, with a brief period of heat returning to the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys on Tuesday and Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday.

To the north, an upper-level shortwave and accompanying surface
frontal system will move along the northern tier of the central
U.S. towards the Upper Midwest. Deep moisture flowing northward
ahead of the system will bring increasing storm chances through
tonight. Hot temperatures along with the plentiful moisture will
lead to strong to extreme instability, prompting an Enhanced Risk
of severe weather (level 3/5) from the Storm Prediction Center.
Tornadoes and large hail are possible with the storms, but the
primary threat is a corridor of very high wind across southern
Wisconsin and surrounding states. Additionally, a Marginal to
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall causing flash flooding is in
place for portions of the Upper Midwest with locally heavy
downpours. The low system will continue eastward on Tuesday, with
a cold front pushing southeastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes
region. Storms developing along and ahead of the front could tend
to repeat over the same areas as storm motions become more
parallel to the increasingly east-to-westward oriented front. This
is prompting a larger Slight Risk of flash flooding for portions
of the Middle Mississippi Valley with a Slight Risk of severe
weather aligned in a similar area for Tuesday into Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, the southeastward progression of the front will
produce thunderstorm chances from the Lower/Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue over portions of
the Southwest/Four Corners Region as an influx of ample tropical
moisture brings monsoon-like conditions. Some locally intense
downpours are possible and may lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding, for broad Marginal Risks in the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO). Through Monday evening, more focused rainfall may
be possible in southeast Arizona, which may cause more scattered
instances of flash flooding especially for urban areas around
Tuscon. Then by Wednesday, rainfall may be particularly concerning
over portions of New Mexico that are sensitive to additional
rainfall due to recent burn scars, prompting an embedded Slight
Risk there in the Day 3 ERO. The higher moisture, cloud cover, and
storms will keep temperatures around average, with 80s and 90s in
the Four Corners region and 100s to 110 for the Southwest.
Forecast high temperatures are generally above average by 5-10
degrees elsewhere in the West, with 60s and 70s along the
immediate Pacific Coast, 70s and 80s in the Pacific Northwest, and
low to mid-90s for the Great Basin. Highs in the low to mid-100s
for portions of interior central California and the 110s for the
western Mojave/Sonoran Deserts have prompted heat-related
advisories and warnings.

Elsewhere, areas of showers and storms may continue into this
evening/tonight in the vicinity of a surface low slowly pushing
away from northern New England. Farther south, additional storms
are possible ahead of a cold front over portions of the Southeast.
Diurnal sea breeze-related storms are also expected over Florida
Monday and Tuesday. Welcome relief from the weekend`s heat is
present in the Mid-Atlantic, with highs generally in the 70s and
80s. Temperatures will gradually rise across the Eastern Seaboard
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to 90s.


Tate/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$