899
FXUS01 KWBC 102000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 11 2026 - 00Z Thu Aug 13 2026

...Mid-summer heat persists across much of the CONUS, with a few
record highs possible across the south-central High Plains...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threats continue across
the Midwest, Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, with a hail
threat over the Northern Plains over the next couple of days...

As we approach mid-August, a broad ridge of high pressure remains
dominant across the southern tier states and especially over the
Four Corners. This pattern will maintain widespread above-normal
temperatures for much of the CONUS, with highs from the upper 90s
to well into the triple digits across the south-central High
Plains for the next couple of afternoons.  South of the ridge
axis, a tropical disturbance lifting out of the western Gulf will
bring a round of showers and thunderstorms into the western Gulf
Coast region through this evening, followed by recurrence of
late-day showers and thunderstorms there the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, monsoonal convection will become more widespread over
the next couple of days across the Great Basin to much of the Four
Corners states. These storms will pose a threat for heavy rainfall
and flash flooding especially during the late-day hours. The heavy
rain threat is forecast to be highest across southern Arizona over
the next couple of days where a slight risk of flash flooding is
anticipated. Farther north, drier conditions will persist from
parts of the Cascades eastward to the northern High Plains,
supporting continued elevated fire weather concerns.

Meanwhile, a frontal boundary meandering across the north-central
U.S. will keep the focus for thunderstorms and attendant heavy
rainfall across the Midwest, lower Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley
over the next few days. In addition, thunderstorms capable of
producing severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of
northern Illinois eastward into the Appalachians, possibly
reaching the interior Mid-Atlantic later today and Tuesday,
followed by a slightly lower threat on Wednesday. Some isolated
severe gusts and hail are also possible especially across the
Northern Plains toward the Midwest. This is in response to a wave
of low pressure sliding eastward along the meandering front, aided
by an upper-level impulse sliding eastward into the Great Lakes,
bringing possibly a few inches of rain with locally higher amounts
somewhere within the corridor from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley
where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated on Tuesday
through Wednesday morning. The heavy rain threat is forecast to
continue into much of Wednesday along this corridor although the
severe storm chances should be less prominent.

Meanwhile, cooler than normal temperatures will be experienced
across the northern Plains where low temperatures into the 50s are
forecast for the next couple of mornings near the Canadian border.
Slightly cooler than normal highs into the lower to mid 90s are
found over the western Gulf Coast region where daily
showers/thunderstorms are expected. Cool than normal highs will
become more prevalent across the Great Basin where monsoonal
late-day showers/storms become more widespread. Summer heat
soaring well into the 90s with humidity and widely scattered
thunderstorms will prevail across the Southeast including the
Sunshine State.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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