669
FXUS01 KWBC 020701
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 02 2025 - 12Z Thu Sep 04 2025

...Unsettled weather across portions of the Mid-South, Tennessee
Valley, and from Florida to southern Texas, with locally heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding possible...

...A strong cold front will bring a notably colder airmass into
the north-central U.S. the next few days...

...Hot weather remains across the western U.S. with the Pacific
Northwest carrying the potential for record-breaking high
temperatures...

Deep moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary stretching
from Florida to southern Texas will be the focus for additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms through midweek. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will be especially prevalent for the
southern Florida Peninsula as waves of low pressure develop nearby
along the front. Given the highly anomalous moisture in place, any
shower or storm will be capable of producing downpours, some of
which could lead to very localized flash flooding. The front sags
far enough south on Wednesday and Thursday to allow drier air to
work into Texas and much of the Gulf Coast.

Farther north, a slow-moving frontal system will lead to periods
of unsettled weather from the Mid-South to the Tennessee Valley
the next couple of days. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
will support locally heavy rainfall and the potential for isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Showers, storms
and an abundance of clouds will largely keep temperatures on the
cooler side of normal by a couple degrees.

A strong cold front will sweep across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest today followed by the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and
central Plains Wednesday into Thursday. The front will kick off
showers and thunderstorms as it pushes to the south and east the
next few days, with locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
possible. More notable will be the significant temperature drop in
the wake of the cold front as a much colder airmass settles into
the region. High temperatures are only forecast to be in the 50s
to 60s from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota and Wisconsin on
Wednesday, roughly 15 to 25 degrees below early September averages.

While colder air surges southward to the east of the Rockies, most
places west of the Continental Divide will remain much warmer than
normal as a large ridge of upper level high pressure stays parked
over the Intermountain West. The hottest temperatures will be
focused across the Pacific Northwest where a multi-day heat wave
is just getting started. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
are in effect for portions of the Columbia Basin into northwestern
Montana into Wednesday, with high temperatures potentially
exceeding 100 degrees from northern Oregon to eastern Washington.
High temperatures of this magnitude are likely to challenge
records. Farther south, monsoonal moisture will return across
portions of the Southwest and Four Corners over the next few days,
bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms and
the potential for localized flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
The increasing moisture will also lead to more clouds which should
allow temperatures to trend near to slightly cooler than normal.

Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$