712
FXUS01 KWBC 030717
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 03 2025 - 12Z Fri Sep 05 2025

...A series of strong cold fronts will bring increasingly cooler
air to the north central U.S. along with the risk of strong to
severe thunderstorms across the central Plains...

...Deep moisture along a stalled frontal boundary will support
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the southern Florida
Peninsula the next few days...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
Southwest and Four Corners through the end of the week, with
isolated to scattered flash flooding possible...

...Significant heat continues across the interior Pacific
Northwest with record high temperatures likely...

A strong cold front will continue to sweep to the south and east
across the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and the central Plains
today, ushering in a much cooler airmass in its wake. Behind the
front, high temperatures will be roughly 15 to 25 degrees below
early September averages, topping out only in the 40s across far
northern Minnesota, and into the 50s and 60s for the rest of the
northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes regions. In addition to
bringing unseasonably chilly into the region, the cold front will
also kick off fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms as it
moves through, with the potential for storms to become strong to
severe across portions of the central Plains this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds and very large hail are the primary
concerns with these storms, though an isolated tornado isn`t ruled
out. Showers and storms will spread eastward along the cold front
into the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, interior Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Building warmth and
increasing humidity ahead of the front will support another risk
of strong to marginally severe storms by Thursday afternoon.
Meanwhile, yet another strong cold front is forecast to push into
the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday into
Friday, ushering in a reinforcing blast of unseasonably cool air
across the region.

Farther south, deep moisture pooled along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary draped across southern Florida will continue to
produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms the next few
days. Given the high moisture in place, any clusters of showers
and storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. While the
overall risk of flash flooding is quite low, it`s possible that
some particularly heavier showers and storms can lead to some
minor ponding on roadways and in poor drainage areas.

West of the Rockies, strong surface heating and increasing
monsoonal moisture will set the stage for daily scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest
and Four Corners through the end of the week. Showers and storms
will contain bursts of heavy rain which could lead to isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly across
southern Arizona and in more vulnerable places like slot canyons,
arroyos, steep terrain, burn scars, etc.

Across interior portions of the Pacific Northwest, a significant
late season heat wave continues as a ridge of upper-level high
pressure remains parked over the region. High temperatures are
forecast to climb well into the 90s and low 100s today and again
on Thursday, which will likely challenge daily high temperature
records and could even threaten monthly high temperature records.
As a result of the unseasonably hot weather, Extreme Heat Warnings
and Heat Advisories are in effect across parts of northern Oregon,
eastern Washington, northern Idaho and northwest Montana.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$