040
FXUS01 KWBC 170631
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 17 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 19 2025

...Flash flood threat for the central Appalachians, central
Plains, and the Midwest Tuesday & Tuesday night...

...Severe thunderstorm risk for the central U.S. Tuesday, Midwest
& lower Great Lakes on Wednesday, & the Mid-Atlantic States
Thursday...

...Fire weather concerns for portions of the West & Rockies
through Thursday...Significant heat in the Southwest this
week...Heat builds in the East...

The main weather maker through Thursday will be a progressive
upper level disturbance and cold front crossing at a modest pace
across the Plains and East.  From Tuesday into early Wednesday
will be the time period when more intense thunderstorms could
erupt in and near the Central Plains when a wave of low pressure
is forecast to develop.  The low pressure wave is then forecast to
intensify and track northeast into the Midwest on Wednesday when
the threat of severe thunderstorms will shift farther south and
east from the southern Plains across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and
into the lower Great Lakes.  In addition to the severe weather
threat, a heavy rain/flash flooding threat is expected from
portions of the east-central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night. The heavy rain threat may lessen a bit on
Wednesday across the Midwest to the Great Lakes but strong to
severe thunderstorms could develop once again on Wednesday across
the Midwest ahead of the cold front trailing from the intensifying
low pressure system.  Across much of the Ohio Valley, southern
Mid-Atlantic and the Deep South, scattered thunderstorms will be
the rule through the next couple of days due to instability due to
a pair of disturbances aloft.  Once the approaching cold front
nears the East on Thursday, severe weather would be possible
within the increasingly hot and humid air mass.

As the initial progressive upper level disturbance moves through
the West, a fire weather risk shifts southeast across portions of
Arizona, the Four Corners, and into the far southern Rockies
Tuesday under a dry, gusty west to northwesterly wind.  Red Flag
Warnings are in effect for a large portion within these areas.  On
Wednesday, an elevated fire weather threat materializes across
interior portions of the Northwest as a second disturbance aloft
and attendant front approaches from the Pacific which then shifts
into the Great Basin on Thursday.  Significant heat expands across
the West on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge reestablishes
following the departure of the upper level disturbance.  High
temperatures will remain 110F+ for the hottest locations in the
Desert Southwest through the remainder of the week where Extreme
Heat Warnings remain in effect.  Meanwhile, Heat Advisories remain
in effect across in and near western Texas where high temperatures
approaching and exceeding 100F are forecast each afternoon through
Wednesday.  The building heat on Thursday brings the chance for
record high temperatures to a couple locations in and near the
Great Basin.  The Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic states, and New
England states will see increasing heat as warm core ridging
briefly builds across the region and a warm front lifts north of
the area.  Record high temperatures...in the low 90s...are
possible in southern New England on Thursday.

Roth/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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