606
FXUS01 KWBC 291942
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 00Z Tue Dec 02 2025

...Major winter storm over the central/northern Plains will spread
eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend with
widespread heavy snowfall and hazardous travel conditions...

...Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will focus
along the western Gulf Coast this weekend with locally heavy
rainfall possible...

...A wintry pattern bringing well below average, chilly
temperatures to much of the eastern and central U.S....

A upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Basin into the
Central Rockies continues to dip further into Northern CONUS
tonight bringing more winter-like weather over the next few days.
The storm over the Central/Northern Plains that carries bands of
heavy snow, will continue to move eastward over into the Central
Plains and Upper Midwest tonight. As this upper-wave emerges over
the Plains, lee cyclogenesis will help to deepen/organize a low
pressure system that will lift northeastward from the central
Plains into the Midwest, continuing to support a broad area of
heavy snow spreading eastward into the Great Lakes region. In
addition, the cold front that drapes across the Pacific
Northwest/Great Basin will push southward, supporting chances for
low-level showers and high-elevation snow tonight as well as an
increased chance for snowfall over the Central Rockies/Great Basin
into the Mississippi Valley Sunday through Monday. Snowfall rates
exceeding 1-2"/hour are expected with snowfall totals between
6-12". Several states and regions are under Winter Weather
Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings. The combination of heavy
snow rates along with gusty winds will create dangerous travel
conditions due to limited visibility and snow-covered roadways.
The snow should taper off from west to east heading into Sunday
morning.

The surface low over the Upper Mid-West continues to move
southeastward, pushing the cold front into the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening. As the moisture from the
Gulf interacts with the cold front, chances for moderate to
locally heavy rainfall will increase for parts of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic. Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for east-central Texas for excessive
rainfall with chances for isolated flash flooding. In addition,
Storm Prediction has also highlighted a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for severe thunderstorms over the east-central/southeast Texas
area. As the front continues northeastward, expect scattered
showers with lower chances for heavy downpours and severe
thunderstorms, due to less instability in the upper-levels and
less moisture from the Gulf. In addition, as the front interact
with colder air over the Interior Northeast and New England,
expect some wintry mix into Monday.

The upper-level troughing will push the series of cold fronts
across the central and eastern U.S. over the next few days
bringing below average temperatures, with max temperatures
forecasted to reach 10-25 degrees below normal. The next cold
front pressing southward through the Plains will bring highs as
low as the single digits for the northern High Plains on Sunday,
with 20s and 30s into the northern and central Plains and eastward
into the Midwest/Mississippi Valley through Monday. After the
frontal passage moves through Texas today, temperatures will drop
from the 70s/80s to 30s/40s. Gusty winds with the front will lead
to wind chills in the teens and 20s Sunday morning as far south as
north Texas. Southerly flow ahead of the next approaching system
will bring a brief warm up for southeastern coastal locations on
Sunday as highs climb into the 60s. Temperatures will remain
relatively warmer over the western U.S. with highs around or a bit
above seasonal averages.

Oudit/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$