854
FXUS01 KWBC 050743
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 05 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 07 2025

...A storm system will bring mountain snow, locally heavy rain,
gusty winds and much cooler temperatures to portions of the
western and central U.S...

...Above average temperatures will advance eastward into the Great
Lakes and Northeast today and Monday...

...Remaining unsettled with scattered areas of heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding for the coastlines of the central Gulf and
Southeast...

A relatively strong upper level storm system will continue
tracking eastward through the north-central U.S. today. Colder
temperatures filtering in underneath and behind this storm system
will allow for additional mountain snow in the higher terrain of
western Montana into northwestern/northern Wyoming. Accumulations
of 6 to 12+ inches are expected, locally higher for the highest
elevations. Even for some of the middle elevations from 4000-7000
feet, lighter snow accumulations are possible in portions of
western Montana and Wyoming. Freeze Watches and Warnings are also
in place across much of Wyoming and scattered through the West as
the temperatures drop.

A surface low related to the system aloft will track through the
northern Plains into northern Minnesota this morning with a cold
front extending south and west. Much colder air will filter into
the northern Rockies and central to northern Plains as the cold
front moves through, marking 24 to 48 hour high temperature drops
of 20 to 30 degrees. On the warm side of the cold front, after
record breaking heat on Saturday across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes, above average temperatures will translate eastward
into portions of the Midwest and Northeast. High temperatures for
today and Monday are expected to be roughly 10 to 20 degrees above
average from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast. While the
potential for record high temperatures will be lower for these
areas compared to Saturday over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes,
there could still be a few records that get broken from the middle
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Northeast.

The cold front will provide a focus for rain and thunderstorms
across the central Plains to Upper Midwest today and into Monday.
Some thunderstorms could contain high winds and hail, with the
highest chance for severe weather in parts of Kansas today per the
Storm Prediction Center, which has delineated a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5). A narrow band of heavy rain could lead to isolated
flash flooding for north-central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska
and Iowa today into tonight. Gusty southerly winds are likely
ahead of the front, even leading to elevated fire weather concerns
today for parts of eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and Indiana
when paired with dry ground conditions. Winds of 20-30 mph will be
common behind the surface low and front as well. Then on Monday as
moisture streams ahead of the advancing cold front, areas of the
lower Mississippi Valley to Mid-South and Ohio Valley could see a
few instances of flash flooding.

A large ridge of high pressure over the East and quasi-stationary
front to its south, extending from the Bahamas westward into the
Gulf, will maintain unsettled weather from the central Gulf Coast
to the coastline of the the Southeast and Florida. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some with locally very heavy rain, will
remain in the forecast for the central Gulf Coast today and
Florida for the next 2 or 3 days. Urban areas would be
particularly vulnerable to flash flooding. In addition, gusty
winds may lead to concerns for mariners and beachgoers, with rip
currents and high surf possible.


Tate/Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$