926
FXUS01 KWBC 171905
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 18 2026 - 00Z Thu Aug 20 2026

...Severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding threats
from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic today...

...Potential for severe storms and flash flooding will persist
across parts Midwest and Central Plains Tuesday and through
Wednesday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast, while
building into the Southwest early this week...

For the remainder of Monday, a lengthy cold front stretching from
the southern High Plains to New England will trigger scattered
thunderstorms all along and ahead of its path with some storms
capable of becoming severe and producing flash flooding. WPC
maintains a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) over parts of the Ohio
Valley and Central Appalachains, while SPC has a Slight Risk
(threat level 2/5) from the Tennessee Valley on east into the
central NC and south-central VA. Farther west, another cold front
in the Northern Plains will generate thunderstorms in the Midwest.
SPC maintains a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) from the Nebraska
Sand Hills on north and east in eastern SD and western MN. By
Tuesday, the cold front in the East slides off the coast while the
southern extension of the front remains located over the South.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the
Southeast, but the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
will less likely compared to Monday.

The focus for potential flash flooding and severe weather shifts
to the Midwest on Tuesday as the cold front over the North-Central
U.S. races south. At the same time, intensifying low pressure in
the Central Plains will strengthen a warm front moving towards
eastern Kansas and southern Missouri Tuesday afternoon. This clash
between the cold front to the north and a warm front to the south
provides adequate triggers to spark numerous showers and
thunderstorms from central Nebraska and northern Kansas to as far
east as the Mississippi River. WPC and SPC both have Slight Risks
out for Excessive Rainfall and severe storms in the heart of the
Midwest where flash flooding and storms capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds may occur. Elsewhere, the same northern
tier cold front will track across the Great Lakes, bringing more
showers and storms to the region on Tuesday. Hit-or-miss storms
will also be possible across the Central and Southern Rockies, as
well as the Central High Plains. The cold front continues to track
east towards the Northeast on Wednesday while low pressure in the
Southern Plains helps produce additional storms from the Central
Rockies to as far east as the Ohio Valley through Wednesday
afternoon.

Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains
mired in a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards.
Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common
with the Southeast at the heart of the the anomalous heat through
Tuesday. By Wednesday, as upper-level ridging strengthens over the
Southwest, some cases of record breaking highs/minimums are
expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Extreme Heat
Warnings are in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with wide
spread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories stretching from
the Dallas/Fort Worth and Oklahoma City metro areas eastward to
the Southeast coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in
some cases) that, when combined with oppressive dew points,
little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be
available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips
by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring access to
A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends,
neighbors, and family members.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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