621
FXUS01 KWBC 290810
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 29 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 01 2026

...The Nor`easter over Cape Cod will begin to weaken and move
northeast over the Atlantic by Wednesday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southwest, Central/Southern Rockies, and
Central/Southern High Plains on Tuesday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains, and Southern
Plains on Wednesday...

...Temperatures over southern Texas will be in the upper 90s and
near 100 on Tuesday and Wednesday...

The Nor`easter over the Gulf of Maine is weakening and moving
northeast over the Atlantic, with rain slowly tapering off by late
Tuesday morning. The system will be east of the Maritime Provinces
of Canada by Wednesday. Moreover, upper-level ridging over the
Southern Plains will allow temperatures to reach the upper 90s and
near 100 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo will
stream northward into the Southwest/Southern Rockies, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the region on
Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest/Southern Rockies
for Tuesday. The threat of excessive rainfall will move into parts
of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Similarly, the WPC has issued
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Rockies/Central High Plains for Wednesday and areas of
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall will be over parts
of Southern Plains on Wednesday. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in
or near recently burned areas.

Considerable flash flooding is possible across portions of New
Mexico and western Texas on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains
and the Central Rockies/Central High Plains Wednesday. Locally,
considerable flash flooding impacts are also possible elsewhere
across the broader Southwest and Southern Plains. Locally
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding
is possible across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Tuesday into
Wednesday. Flash, urban, and river flooding impacts may also be
possible starting Wednesday across central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. Widespread rainfall of 3-6 inches, with locally higher
totals, is expected, with the heaviest rain across the Southern
Plains. Also, avoid travel through already flooded and vulnerable
areas. Be especially cautious at night. If you encounter flooding
while driving, turn around, dont drown.

The threat continues into Thursday for the Southern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains for Thursday.
Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The
flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned
areas.

Also, a wave of low pressure over parts of the Northern Plains on
Tuesday will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow
canyons/gullies the most vulnerable. In addition, heavy rain will
continue over the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley
Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday.  These thunderstorms
could produce frequent lightning, severe wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will decrease to a
Marginal Risk over the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat of tornadoes and
hail. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of
the Great Lakes, along the Florida Coast, and parts of the
Central/Western Gulf Coast on Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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