942
FXUS01 KWBC 160801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 16 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 18 2025

  ...Heavy rainfall and flash flood threat continues for portions
of the Mid-Atlantic west into the Ohio Valley Wednesday...

...Heavy downpours and flash flooding expected with a tropical
disturbance moving along the north-central Gulf Coast through
mid-week...

...Potent summer storm system to bring flash flooding and severe
weather threat to the Midwest and northern/central Plains
Wednesday...

...Heat threat building across much of the eastern U.S. through at
least mid-week...

A moisture-rich Summer-time airmass continues to dominate much of
the eastern and central U.S. through midweek, supporting multiple
regions of scattered to widespread thunderstorms capable of
producing heavy downpours and flash flooding. The Mid-Atlantic and
vicinity remain one of these regions as a decaying frontal
boundary and the approach of a second cold front from the north
provide the focus for a renewed round of thunderstorms Wednesday.
Plentiful moisture near climatological maximums will fuel
efficient, very heavy downpours, with a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect covering the central
Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians west into the Upper Ohio Valley and
Lower Great Lakes, where scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected. Storms will continue ahead of the cold front across the
interior Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic/Upper Ohio Valley
Thursday. To the south, the National Hurricane Center continues to
monitor an area of low pressure over the Florida Panhandle that
may reemerge into the northern Gulf as it slowly drifts westward.
Regardless of any further development, continued thunderstorm
development around the low and plentiful Gulf moisture will bring
the threat for flash flooding. A more isolated risk is expected
Tuesday along the Florida Gulf coast west through the central Gulf
Coast. The threat increases for more scattered flash flooding
Wednesday as the low approaches the central Gulf Coast, with a
Slight Risk in effect, and a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in place
for Thursday.

A potent Summer storm system moving through the central U.S. will
be another focus area for more widespread thunderstorms with the
threat of both flash flooding and severe weather. A complex
convective scenario will unfold Wednesday as ongoing overnight
thunderstorm complexes along a cold front stretching from the
Upper Midwest southwest through the Missouri Valley and into the
central Plains will help influence further thunderstorm
development into the day. The ongoing complexes may continue with
renewed/expanded development with daytime heating, while remnant
outflows reinforce the cold front/effective boundary and provide a
focus area for additional renewed development. This currently
appears most likely in two corridors: first, from the Upper
Mississippi Valley east into the Great Lakes, and second, from the
central Plains east into the Middle Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect for the
threat of scattered flash flooding. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has included a Slight Risk of severe weather
(level 2/5) for the Upper Mississippi Valley to Great Lakes for
the threat of damaging winds with the re-intensifying/redeveloping
thunderstorms, as well as along the central High Plains of
Colorado where damaging winds and large hail can be expected as
afternoon thunderstorms develop in moist post-frontal upslope
flow. The front will push southward on Sunday, with scattered
thunderstorms expected along its length from the Ohio/Middle
Mississippi Valleys west through the central Plains with the
potential of isolated flash flooding. A locally higher threat for
flash flooding is expected for portions of the central/southern
High Plains where more widespread storms are expected along the
tail end of the front pushing up against the Rockies, with a
Slight Risk in effect.  Further west, Monsoonal moisture will
continue to lead to scattered thunderstorms for portions of the
Southwest/Four Corners region the next couple of days, with
isolated flash flooding possible, particularly for terrain
sensitive areas and burn scars.

Increasingly uncomfortable and potentially dangerous heat is
expected across the eastern U.S. west to the Lower Mississippi
Valley the next couple of days as temperatures rise into the 90s
and the moisture-rich, muggy airmass remains. Widespread Moderate
to Major Heat Risk (levels 2-3/4) is in place indicating a level
of heat dangerous to anyone without access to air conditioning or
adequate hydration. A cold front will bring some relatively cooler
temperatures to the interior Northeast Thursday. Temperatures will
also remain uncomfortably hot across the Pacific Northwest
Wednesday as highs climb into the 90s, with heat-related
advisories in effect. An approaching upper-level system/cold front
will bring relatively cooler conditions Thursday as highs drop
into the upper mid- to upper 80s. The rest of the Interior West
can expect average to above average hot Summer-time conditions.
The Storm Prediction Center has included an Elevated to Critical
Risk of Fire Weather (levels 1-2/3) across portions of the central
Great Basin given the hot temperatures and the potential for dry
thunderstorms with lightning/gusty winds. Conditions remain below
average across the Desert Southwest with Monsoonal moisture in
place, and cool along the Pacific Coast under the influence of
onshore flow. The potent cold front pushing through the
northern/central Plains and Midwest has brought early Fall-like
conditions, as highs mainly in the 60s to 70s are upwards of 25-35
degrees below average and near record low maximums for many
locations. Forecast lows are in the 40s for much of the northern
Plains Thursday morning. Temperatures will be near average in the
Southern Plains, with mainly 90s expected.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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