355
FXUS01 KWBC 162041
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 17 2025 - 00Z Thu Jun 19 2025

...Flash flooding threat continues across the central Appalachians
through Tuesday night, diminishes across the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Kentucky later tonight, but increases
across the central Plains to the Midwest on Tuesday...

...Episodes of severe thunderstorms expected to impact the
north-central U.S. for the next couple of days, spreading into the
Midwest and lower Great Lakes on Wednesday...

...Fire weather threat will shift from the Great Basin, across the
Four Corners and into the far southern Rockies through the next
couple of days along with significant heat in the Southwest...

An upper-level trough interacting with a cold front will bring the
most active weather into the north-central U.S. through the next
couple of days.  Episodes of severe thunderstorms can be expected
to impact areas from the northern High Plains, across Nebraska and
into Minnesota through tonight mainly behind the surface frontal
boundary.  Later Tuesday into early Wednesday will be the time
period when more intense thunderstorms could erupt across Kansas
when a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop.  The low
pressure wave is then forecast to intensify and track northeast
into the Midwest on Wednesday when the threat of severe
thunderstorms will shift farther south and east from the central
Plains across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and into the lower Great
Lakes.  In addition to the severe weather threat, a heavy
rain/flash flooding threat is expected from the east-central
Plains to northern Illinois on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
heavy rain threat may lessen a bit on Wednesday across the Midwest
to the Great Lakes but strong to severe thunderstorms could
develop once again later on Wednesday across the Midwest ahead of
the cold front trailing from the intensifying low pressure system.

Meanwhile, the heavy rain and flash flooding threats are expected
to linger across the central Appalachians through Tuesday night as
a warm front will be slow to lift out of the area.  Wednesday
should see these risks diminish as the warm front lifts northeast
through New England. Across much of the Ohio Valley, southern
Mid-Atlantic and the Deep South, scattered thunderstorms will be
the rule through the next couple of days due to instability and
the approach of an elongated upper-level trough.

As a progressive, kicker disturbance moves through the West, a
fire weather risk currently emerging across the Great Basin will
gradually shift southeast across portions of Arizona, the Four
Corners, and into the far southern Rockies through the next couple
of days under a dry west to northwesterly wind that becomes gusty
behind cold frontal impulses.  Red Flag Warnings are in effect for
a large portion within these areas.

Significant heat today across the Southwest underneath an
upper-level ridge will moderate slightly on Tuesday before
rebounding across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday as the ridge
reestablishes following the departure of upper troughing into the
central U.S.  High temperatures will remain in the 110s for the
hottest locations in the Desert Southwest through the next couple
of days where Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect.  Meanwhile,
Heat Advisories remain in effect across portions of southern New
Mexico, southern California, and far western Texas where high
temperatures from the 90s to well up into the 100s are forecast
for the next couple of afternoons.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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