878
FXUS01 KWBC 092006
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 10 2026 - 00Z Wed Aug 12 2026

...Mid-summer heat persists across much of the CONUS, with record
highs possible well into the 100s across the south-central High
Plains...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threats shift eastward
into the Midwest, lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians over the next couple of days...

As we approach mid-August, a broad ridge of high pressure remains
dominant across the southern tier states especially over the Four
Corners. This pattern will maintain widespread above-normal
temperatures from much of the western U.S. through the
Mid-Atlantic, with record-challenging highs into the upper 90s and
triple digits across the south-central High Plains for the next
couple of afternoons. Along the periphery of the ridge, a series
of disturbances lifting out of the western Gulf will support
late-day showers and thunderstorms from parts of the southern
Plains and western Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Monsoonal
convection will also provide some localized relief from the heat
across the Southwest and Great Basin, but these storms will pose a
threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Farther north, drier
conditions will persist from parts of the Cascades eastward to the
northern High Plains, supporting continued elevated fire weather
concerns.

Meanwhile, a frontal boundary meandering across the north-central
U.S. will begin to shift the focus of thunderstorms along with an
increasing threat of heavy rain eastward into the Midwest and
lower Great Lakes through tonight into Monday, followed by the
Ohio Valley and toward the central Appalachians on Tuesday. In
addition, thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts
will be possible from parts of northern Illinois eastward into
western Pennsylvania on Monday, with isolated severe gusts and
hail possible from portions of the central and northern Plains
into the Midwest. This is in response to a wave of low pressure
sliding eastward along the meandering front, aided by an
upper-level impulse sliding eastward into the Great Lakes,
bringing possibly a few inches of rain with locally higher
somewhere within the corridor from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley
through Tuesday. The severe storm and heavy rain chances are
forecast to dip further south through West Virginia on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, cooler than normal temperatures will be experienced
across the northern Plains where low temperatures into the 50s are
forecast for the next couple of mornings near the Canadian border.
Cooler than normal highs into the lower to mid 90s are found near
the western Gulf Coast region where daily showers/thunderstorms
are expected.


Kong/Asherman/Pereira


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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