780
FXUS01 KWBC 171940
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 18 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 20 2025

...Heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms in store across
portions of the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes
Saturday into Sunday...

...Turning colder and unsettled across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies with coastal and valley rain along with mountain
snow...

A deepening low pressure system currently over south central
Canada will continue lifting to the northeast through this
evening, with a lingering frontal boundary draped from the western
Great Lakes to the central Plains. A new wave of low pressure will
develop over the Upper Midwest as the front progresses eastward
Saturday into Sunday, which becomes the next big weather maker
from the ArkLaTex and Mid-South to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage along and ahead of the strong cold front given plenty of
moisture and instability to work with. Storms will have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall rates and repeatedly track
over the same areas, especially across parts of northern Arkansas,
southern Missouri, and southern Illinois on Saturday. This
combination will lead to possible flash flooding concerns, as
outlined by the Slight Risk issued by the Weather Prediction
Center. In addition to the heavy rain threat, the Storm Prediction
Center is highlighting a Slight Risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms on Saturday across portions of northeast Texas,
eastern Oklahoma, the Ozarks, the lower Ohio Valley and lower
Mississippi Valley. The main hazards to watch for include damaging
winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes with the strongest
storms that develop. The risk for heavy rain and strong storms
shifts to the north and east across the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians on Sunday as low pressure
strengthens and the cold front continues marching eastward. In the
wake of the cold front, strong and gusty northwesterly winds will
make for a breezy day across the Midwest on Sunday as a colder air
mass filters into the region.

Elsewhere across the nation, it will be a crisp and cool start to
the weekend for much of the Eastern U.S. with a pristine airmass
in place. Frost and freeze advisories/warnings remain in effect
for interior portions of the Northeast through early Saturday
morning. Downwind of the northern Rockies, high winds will be
possible starting Saturday night across parts of Montana as a
strong Pacific storm system approaches from the west. This
fast-moving storm will quickly push across the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies later Saturday into Sunday, bringing colder
temperatures, coastal/valley rain, and mountain snow to much of
the region. Dry conditions will continue for all of the
southwestern U.S. and the East Coast states as high pressure
continues to govern the overall weather pattern through Saturday.

Miller/Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$