986
FXUS01 KWBC 140816
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Aug 16 2026

...Dangerous heat continues from the Central/Southern Plains to
the Southeast...

...Heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat continues along a corridor
from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and across the
central High Plains...

A burgeoning heatwave continues across the southeastern quadrant
of the country as an upper-level ridge builds over the region.
Heat advisories are currently in effect for much of the southern
Plains through the Deep South and across the Southeast, along with
Extreme Heat Warnings across a large section of the central U.S.
Forecast highs in the upper 90s into the 100s along with high
Summer-time humidity in place will lead to heat indices in the 105
to 115 degree range. Some record-tying/breaking highs will be
possible as many areas see their hottest temperatures of the year
so far, or even in the past few years in some cases. Low
temperatures only dropping into the mid-70s to low 80s will
provide little relief from the heat overnight. These factors have
contributed to widespread areas of Major to Extreme levels of
HeatRisk (levels 3 and 4 out of 4), indicating a level of heat
dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or
hydration. Unfortunately, the heatwave looks to continue well
beyond the current forecast period through at least mid-August.

Meanwhile, on the northern edge of the upper-level ridge, a
corridor of showers and thunderstorms will remain active from the
Midwest through the Ohio Valley and toward the central to southern
Appalachians, where heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather
will remain a threat for the next couple of days.  Thunderstorms
can grow into large clusters especially during the late-day to
overnight hours along this corridor north of a meandering front.
Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall leading to saturated soils and
ongoing flooding have prompted a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 3/4) across southeastern Iowa into Illinois today.
By Saturday, the heavy rain and severe weather threats are
expected to lift only slightly farther north toward the lower
Great Lakes, while some of the strong to severe storms could cross
the Appalachians to reach the Carolinas.

To the west, additional areas of storms with a heavy
rainfall/flash flood threat are also expected through the Interior
West and into the central High Plains. The greatest threat is
expected across portions of the central/southern High Plains
within the southwesterly flow along the western side of the
upper-ridge for today and into the weekend.  Monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms will be most active during the late-day hours across
the Intermountain region but they should become more scattered
each day heading into the weekend. This is in response to another
low pressure wave exiting the northern Rockies today, bringing
showers and thunderstorms farther east across the northern Plains
through the weekend.

Elsewhere, daily rounds of scattered thunderstorms are forecast
from the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast and Florida.
Temperature-wise, conditions will be around to below average and
more mild for most of the country away from the heat wave over the
southern U.S. Forecast highs generally range in the 70s and 80s
from the Northeast west through the Great Lakes, Northern Plains,
and into the Interior West outside of the Deserts, where highs
into the 90s and low/mid-100s will be hotter but still below
average. Portions of the northern High Plains as well as much of
the West Coast will see the relatively coolest temperatures, with
highs only into the 60s.


Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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