993
FXUS01 KWBC 271920
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 28 2025 - 00Z Sat Aug 30 2025

..Active western precip pattern to shift northward into the
Northern Rockies/Northern Great Basin...

...Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across portions of the
Central/Southern Plains into the Lower Arkansas and Lower
Mississippi Valleys...

...Much of the CONUS to have below average temperatures the next
few days except for the Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains and
northern most Northern Plains...

The recent active precipitation pattern that has affected large
portions of the western U.S. over the past few days will continue
late this afternoon into the overnight hours, primarily focused
across the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains.  A
combination of mid to upper level energy pushing northward across
the Northwestern U.S. and much above average level of moisture
will support the heavy rain threat, along with the risk of
flooding.   Precipitation is expected to be less organized than in
past few days farther to the south into the Southern Great Basin,
across California and into the Southwest as the strongest large
scale lift and anomalous moisture values move farther to the
north.  However, some moisture from weakening Tropical Storm
Juliette well off the Baja Peninsula may be transported
northeastward well to the northeast of this weakening system,
bringing some light to locally moderate precipitation totals to
far Southern California on Thursday.  At the moment, precipitation
amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to cause any flooding
issues.

An active precipitation pattern also on tap for portions of the
Central to Southern Plains, southeastward into the Lower Arkansas
and Lower Mississippi Valleys.  Rainfall currently stretching
across central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma is expected to
diminish this evening, being replaced by a more intense area of
thunderstorms and heavy rains from central to eastern Kansas into
northeast Oklahoma, far southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas
after midnight and continuing into the early morning hours of
Thursday.  This area of heavy rains are then expected to press
farther southeastward during the day on Thursday through the Lower
Arkansas Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  There will be
the potential for thunderstorms to train/repeat over the same
area, resulting in the potential for flash flooding.  Flood
watches are currently in effect from central Kansas, southeast
into far southwestern Missouri, far northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas.

Temperature wise, the recent heat wave across the Northwest has
come to an end.  While temperatures will remain above average over
the next few days across this area, the heat risks have diminished
significantly from past days.  Much of the remainder of the CONUS,
save for the Southern Plains and the northern most Northern
Plains, will see below average temperatures over the next few
days.  The large scale mid to upper level flow will continue to be
dominated by a broad trough stretching from eastern Canada into
the eastern U.S.  This will continue to bring some fall like
conditions to large portions of the central to eastern U.S. over
the next few days.


Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$