034
FXUS01 KWBC 152020
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 00Z Wed Jun 18 2025

..There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains /Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday
and the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys on Monday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern High Plains on Sunday and Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Monday...

...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Great Basin/Southwest on Monday...

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the
Central High Plains will remain through Wednesday. Upper-level
energy and abundant moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the
Central Gulf Coast and from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley to the Central Gulf Coast for the rest of Sunday. Three
heavy rain regions will be embedded in the larger mass of showers
and thunderstorms. The first area will be over the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas
where flash flooding events are possible, and many streams may
flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

The second area will cover parts of the Central/Southern Plains
and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley through Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

The third area will cover parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley
through Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, the upper-level energy and moisture will create
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern/Central High Plains through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches
or greater, and severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater
over the region.

On Monday, an area of upper-level energy and abundant moisture
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through
Tuesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

A second area will cover parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle Mississippi Valley from
Monday through Tuesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

However, there will be two separate areas of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Upper Mississippi
Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there
is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains.

There will be a second area of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central
Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Elsewhere, dry fuels, low humidity, and gusty winds have prompted
a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest on Monday.

By Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

A second area of excessive rainfall will develop over parts of the
Ohio Valley/Central Appalachian on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachian. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

Moreover, there will be a third day of Enhanced Risk of showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains.
Therefore, on Tuesday, the SPC issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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