125
FXUS01 KWBC 241830
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 00Z Thu Nov 27 2025

...A stretch snow expected to begin near the Canadian border of
Montana today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on
Tuesday, and into the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning...

...Flash flood and severe weather threats will gradually move
through the Arklatex region today, reaching into the Tennessee
Valley and interior Deep South/Southeast on Tuesday...

...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the
central/eastern U.S. with colder temperatures over the Pacific
Northwest into the Great Plains...

An upper-level trough continues to build over the Northern Rockies
and Northern Plains bringing chances for active weather across the
Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest, and part of the Rockies.
Unsettled weather will continue as the trough gradually dips into
the Central Plains by mid-week. As the moisture from the frontal
system moves over higher elevation, expect chances for freezing
rain and moderate to heavy snow across portions of the Northern
Rockies as a result of colder temperatures and orographic lift. As
the trough amplifies and the strengthening low moves eastward
tonight, chances for snow increases over the Northern Plains,
Upper Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes going into Wednesday. By
early Tuesday morning, expect moments of moderate to heavy snow
bands to move through Northern Montana and parts of North Dakota,
along with an increase in gusty winds due pressure gradient
tightening. Forecasted snowfall amounts may vary, but expect
between 4-8" across parts of the Northern Rockies, Northern
Plains, and Upper Midwest by late Tuesday. By early Wednesday
another frontal system and surge of moisture moves into the
Pacific Northwest, bringing chances for precipiation and
high-elevation snow.

The surface low pressure over the south-central Plains will slowly
move eastward, but will continue to bring rounds of showers and
thunderstorms over the Mid-South and parts of the Tennessee
Valley. In addition, moisture from the Gulf will continue to push
northward and the southerly flow will funnel in warm and moist air
into the frontal system, increasing the chances for severe storms
along the ArkLaTex area. With increase instability, a modestly
strong low-level jet, and ample low-level moisture, Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) continues to highlight a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) across areas of east Texas into
Mississippi through Tuesday, with a slight chance that this system
may produce strong gusty winds and hail. In addition, the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall,
with chances of flooding over the ArkLaTex area. As the the low
pressure system travels northeast, expect chances for widespread
showers and thunderstorms stretching from the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Tuesday going into Wednesday.

As the ridge continues to build over Eastern U.S., max
temperatures will continue to trend 5-10 degrees above normal over
much of the Eastern/Central U.S. Temperatures will range between
70s and 80s near South-central/Southeast U.S., near 50s and 60s
over Central Plains and Mid Ohio Valleys, and within the 40s to
50s near Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes. Over parts of Western U.S. the
cold front will bring colder temperatures, with slightly below
seasonal temperatures, especially over higher elevations.
Temperatures are forecasted to reach in the 30s across much of the
Rockies and Northern/Central Plains. Close to normal temperatures
along the Southwest and along the much of the West Coast, with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$