


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
034 FXUS01 KWBC 152020 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 419 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 00Z Wed Jun 18 2025 ..There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains /Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday and the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Monday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains on Sunday and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Monday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest on Monday... A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central High Plains will remain through Wednesday. Upper-level energy and abundant moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Central Gulf Coast and from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Gulf Coast for the rest of Sunday. Three heavy rain regions will be embedded in the larger mass of showers and thunderstorms. The first area will be over the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas where flash flooding events are possible, and many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The second area will cover parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. The third area will cover parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, the upper-level energy and moisture will create showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, and severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater over the region. On Monday, an area of upper-level energy and abundant moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. A second area will cover parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Middle Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. However, there will be two separate areas of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Upper Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, there is an increased risk of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains. There will be a second area of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Elsewhere, dry fuels, low humidity, and gusty winds have prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest on Monday. By Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. A second area of excessive rainfall will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachian on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachian. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, there will be a third day of Enhanced Risk of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains. Therefore, on Tuesday, the SPC issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$