668
FXUS01 KWBC 151821
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 16 2025 - 00Z Sat Oct 18 2025

...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies on Thursday...

...There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains and Upper Great Lakes
on Wednesday and Thursday....


A closed upper-level low that affected the Southwest over the past
few days continues to advance east-northeastward through the
short-range forecast period. Strong winds, moderate moisture will
continue to produce heavy snowfall across the north-central
Rockies of Northwest Wyoming and adjacent state`s ranges.  Up to
an additional 5-10 inches of snow could be seen at the highest
peaks and passes across the Tetons into Yellowstone N.P. and Wind
River Ranges.

The deep surface low over the Great Basin will fill and transfer
to a strengthening low pressure in the lee of the Central Rockies
later this evening before rapidly developing across the Northern
Plains on Thursday shifting into the southern Canadian Prairies by
Friday. Strong southerly winds through the Plains will bring 10-20
degrees above normal temperatures to the central Plains expanding
north on Thursday across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected along/ahead of the
deepening low with some low end, widely scattered severe weather
potential (Marginal Risk, level 1 of 5, per Storm Prediction
Center) across the Central Rockies today, Central High Plains
Thursday and across OK/KS late Friday.

A few thunderstorms along the southern edge in New Mexico could
reach rates capable of widely scattered flash flooding as the
Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
the Southern Rockies.  The heavy rainfall risk shifts to the
northwest side of the surface low, prolonged moderate rainfall may
produce some localized flooding concerns along the MT/ND border as
there is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Thursday into
early Friday.

Lastly, there remain some localized Freeze Warnings up for the
Columbia River Valley and parts of the Great Basin behind the cold
front.


Elsewhere, a cold front is pressing through the northeast and
through the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into
evening.  The strong upper-level wave will strengthen off in the
northwest Atlantic over the next day or two bring strong winds and
high wave conditions well offshore, winds will shift from
northwest toward northeasterly into Thursday and keep temperatures
slightly below normal but generally dry and pleasant given sunny
conditions;  the only exception being of Cape Cod region late on
Thursday into Friday morning with some passing light to
occasionally moderate showers.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$